40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think its about done....JMO. -
The wxbell is a bit optimistic, SV is pessimistic....I would probably lean 2/3 in favor of wxbell, though.
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1-2 degrees warmer at H925 across e MA..depending where you are. I'd have some mixing here, but should be mainly snow.
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That would complete the quad of pork....NE, SE, NW, I just need if from the SW now...that would do it.
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We are getting some clarity, its just the kind that no one likes lol
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I don't think it will be as bad as that map implies, but one or two more tics, and it could be. I still expect a tic or two se at the end.
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Probably the same good shit the those crying in NNE all week were.
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Thank god
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Thankfully the SSW propagated.
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People keep ogling over stall this, capture, crawl, lagrangian....PS: 10 hour burst, then some sprinkles. Yea, I get that the stall doesn't happen in a great spot for us, and the dynamics wane, but it's frustrating as hell. Not to mention whacking it to your 8SD NAO block and -10 wind chills, as you prep the rain gauge.
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The thump "Lagrangian"s its way through in like 10 hours...I mean, if that is slow, WTF is fast?
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Part of me wonders if that big ULL closure-virtual stall scenario doesn't try to shift NE very late in the game. Time will tell- In other news, anyone who rains on the heels of the most anomalous NAO block in over a decade, as well as an arctic surge accompanied by temps near zero needs to absolutely, positively blow a fu**ing gasket.
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2010.
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I do think it's a good sign that the NAM didn't trend west....its an ensemble member.
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ICON looks great...ticker-tape parade for of misfit toys- I still think this will tick back east before go-time.....much of eastern Mass can probably approach a foot.
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EPS like the OP, a hair warmer/west than 00z.
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I have always throught that.
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12z GFS drops about 3' in S PA. Writing is on the wall here....mediocrity.
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This is why you almost never want to see PA and MD get crushed....just immediately begin to think about how that porks you here....because it usually will 8/10 times.
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This run is a bit too warm at the surface during heavy precip, judging by H925, so I'm not saying to toss it, but handle with care. Check H925 tems:
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Here is the trend to shift heavy snows west with that ULL, which is opposite of what you want if you are still seeking to nix the "No HECS in back half of mod nina" rule Hopefully too late in game to entirely ruin this event.
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Don't be surprised if this tics back se a tad like Sunday night...
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I think there may be an area of subby between the fire hose induced low level front in eastern NE, and the mid level deformation back over the Berkshires-NYS-VT.
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Well, we can all agree that the ULL closing off over Nashville isn't ideal.
