40/70 Benchmark

What you are referring to is called the "Delayed Oscillation" theory, and I have written about it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/ Stronger ENSO events correlate more to the opposite ENSO state the following season due to the subsurface phenomena that drive ENSO, such as the Walker Cycle. This does not mean that we are screwed for several years following an intense el nino, but rather that a la nina is favored after a super el nino. 1983-1984 and 2016-2017 were decent snowfall la nina seasons immediately following intense el nino events.

I'll happily grab my ankles and take one for the team today. No interest in 3" of snow on a Monday, at this point of the season. #porkme.

Yea, right through your area. Frustrating season here, but it could have been worse....at least I'm not Jeff lol

Hunchie is like ORH....in a spot where its touch to catch a porking.

Its cool how each season picks a spot to run the train...even the crappy ones. Last season it was Hunchie, 2015 Scooter....

West and south has been better all season long, and that probably won't change, at this point.

Sounds reasonable. Good luck.

FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1

Yea, I got that in that one event. Tough luck for you....you'll be back in the saddle next year, most likely.

I'm not whining at all. I'm discussing the snowfall.

What do you have on the month? Feb 1 is the only event that kept this season from being an abomination worst than last season, here....I get that its been colder, but I mean in terms of snowfall.

34.7, up from a low of 8.6

I'll bet @Typhoon Tip could shed some light at why.....

I have had 26" this month....season has been servicable.

My rough patches look to be NYC, Tolland, ORH and NNE....thought still plenty of time to make up ground up north. Much better effort than the past two season. December-March Snowfall Outlook City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 40-50" ? ? NewYork, NY(Central Park) 11-21" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 11-21" ? ? Baltimore, MD 10-20" ? ? Washington, DC 5-15" ? ? Albany, NY 52-62" ? ? Hartford, CT 40-50" ? ? Providence, RI 25-35" ? ? Worcester, MA 50-60" ? ? Tolland, CT 40-50" ? ? Methuen, MA 50-60" ? ? Hyannis, MA 15-25" ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80" ? ? Concord, NH 65-75" ? ?

2009-2010 being bad here was a fluke. Why do you hate super el ninos? Look at the storm we had had in Feb 1983!!!

Take the Feb we had and run....the blocking stole Feb.

It bites all right.....

That chart doesn't tell the whole story, either....the structure is very important. I will take a modoki el nino regardless of strength over any la nina.

The most favorable ENSO state for snowfall is weak el nino. I don't care what data you find. I will grant you that a super el nino is probably worse than a super la nina....not merely strong, but very strong.

Big Ninas are generally hostile, anyway....that is an indisputable fact. Least favorable ENSO state.

Yea, the valleys maybe tough everywhere. Hopefully the low end of the 1-2" range covers it....otherwise, I'll live-

Few thoughts on Monday and thereafter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/weak-disturbance-monday-heralds-arrival.html

It's about average right now, but I'm betting that it finishes below.

About 15".