40/70 Benchmark

Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada.

Reality will be further north, anyway.

That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS.

Just going to the cape.

Problem is mother nature probably won't lol

GFS looks good for the real threat, on the 17th..

Gave this one a "D". Should have went with my instinct on First Call. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/february-9-snowfall-verification.html February 9 Snowfall Verification: Meteorology vs "Modelology" The Role of the Forecaster Contemporary forecasting models are undoubtedly more skilled than ever before, and accordingly play a large role in the in the development of forecasts. However, there is a reason that they are referred to as "guidance". After all, if they were flawless, then there would be no need for meteorologists. Thus it is incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize discretion when incorporating this data into a forecast. The primary role of the forecaster is to utilize a blend of a foundational understanding of how the atmosphere operates, a knowledge of climatology and forecasting experiences to distinguish when said guidance is accurately, and when it is in error. Sometimes it is important for the forecaster to resist the innate urge to relay on this guidance, instead deferring to a visceral, "gut" instinct that is incongruent with the data. This poor forecast was a splendid illustration of this. Here is the snowfall from yesterday across the region: The prevailing thought process that guided the First Call was that snowfall would be light, due to very meager frontogenesis and OMEGA (lift), which obviously ended up very close to reality. However, guidance inexplicably became more aggressive in terms of snowfall during the day on Monday, thus the Final Call was begrudgingly adjusted accordingly, against better judgement. This was obviously too aggressive, and thus a bad forecast that resulted from the over reliance upon guidance. The lesson here is practice meteorology, not "modelology". Learn to trust your instinct as a forecaster- Final Grade: D Perhaps the saving grace is that the pattern over the course of the next week looks likely to provide ample opportunity for redemption.

NB

I had a 11", then it ended as drizzle and the temp rose into the upper 30s...lost a couple of inches. Lowell stayed cold....was all powder there.

Took me about 3.5 hours to get from South campus of UML to my mom's in Wilmington...about 10 miles.

That is what I was going to throw out....big take.

Better than CJ...anyway, its not all about Methuen.

I take.

lol

I'd take that...hopefully one more biggie at some point, thereafter.

Still possible, if unlikely.

All you can do is identify the period.....if in every instance said potential was realized, then we'd average 200". Obviously I'm hoping for another big ticket, as always, but this season has already bucked the trend for mod-strong cool ENSO to avoid big impactors.

You mean accumulation, or just snow in the air?

Good luck...hopefully it pans out for you.

It does.....the value of frequent refreshers.....especially this time of year, when the sun starts to cook the snow along the roadsides...it gets nasty looking quickly.

Not what I said. I'd just like some beefier events that target a bit further north..that's all. Jesus.....its been a great month, agreed.

I don't have any complaints about that event.....I think the season has been good, as well. Man, you guys are so sensitive....

I'm not melting. I'm just bored with the season/pattern...that's all. I don't know why that pisses everyone off so much.

I would like a hugger that drives the CF to I 495 again....that was fun....not these meager events where we are forced to squint to make out any semblance of lift of fronto.