40/70 Benchmark

http://archive.boston.com/news/weather/articles/2008/02/08/national_weather_services_history_of_the_blizzard_of_1978/#:~:text=THIS STORM IS KNOWN AS,OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WOULD BECOME THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FORMED FROM A DIVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE SYSTEMS JOINED FORCES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON THE NIGHT OF MONDAY FEBRUARY 5 TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...AS AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW MARCHED ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

I disagree. It was mainly N stream, but there was a meager contribution from the south.

There was a weak wave coming up from the south, too. it moved off of the Carolinas...

Feb '78 was the former...

GEFS def trended a hair east and less impressive, but really noise.

I still see the protracted moderate impact as the higher likelihood.

Well, I feel like my floor is to the east. I'm not getting rain unless something drastically changes, and with the easterly fetch, I'd rather concede the deformation area, then risk a graze. I don't foresee big subby areas in E NE.

I mean, it could very well end up at either edge, but I'm not in bad spot, right now. Slightly more concerned about W tics, which is the problem that I'd rather have. Last thing I want is a graze.

Seems like the goal posts are a se MA special to a tuck job...I'm okay with that.

I was speaking to you, not at you.

To the contrary...if you won that run, then you have my condolences.

Assuming we do get that deep layer E fetch.....I not recall any big scew zones over E NE, with the exception of RI in March 2013. Still not sure what that was all about, but I doubt a recurrence. That is a high-confidence dump over a large area, precip type issues not withstanding.

Def. less impressive than 06z.

I wouldn't worry about shit like that right now.

Reverse in relation to how it compares to previous runs.

That is why I don't usually do PBP...it changes and trends reverse.

The wild card is that deep layer easterly fetch....you don't need insane mid level dynamics....Dec 1992 tucked wayyyyy in near LI, occluded, and still kicked back 3-4" of QPF.

At least with a hugger, there is less likely to be a subby hole west of the CF with that deep easterly fetch...may not even need the deformation, which would be way back west.

That is fine, but its a stretch if nothing shows that.

Shifting of the goal posts....

24 hours...okay. Post the support for 48 hours of mod to heavy snow...that should be widespread 24"+ relatively evenly distributed over the course of 2 days.

I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storms, and is supported by no guidance.

Its bad....even the weenie Weatherbell maps give Boston 1.7", with 4" out to 495. I can confidently say that isn't happening with that track.

Look like its getting captured off of NJ, right now....plenty of time to trend that a little further out towards the cape.