40/70 Benchmark

I encountered a hell of a squall on I93 in Malden about 745am....def S+.

I don't recall arctic cold before the March 2013 even or Dec 1992....hopefully its still decent..at least a foot.

That is the issue with the arctic airmass disappearing....just an amorphous bag of crap with no big gradients. Same issue we have had all season, despite the epic pattern change. Thanks.

The question is residency time....if the band zips through in 12 hours, its going to have to be pretty impressive to lay down over a foot generally.

I think we have better 850 inflow than Boxing Day, so I don't think it will be that shredded.

Exactly....it was clear as day. The forecast for this major snow storm was a general success, as both the snowfall minimum and maximum areas were correctly placed across southern New England. However, the amounts within the general 12-18"range that encompassed the vast majority of the region were confined to the lower half of said range. Thus perhaps a 10-15" range would have been more suitable. A range of 8-12" would have been more representative in the substinence zone of lighter areas, rather than the 10-16" that was used. The placement of this axis was exceptionally well forecast, as were the heavier areas, on the north and south shore. The heavier area throughout western Connecticut, a result of the nexus between the warm and cold conveyor belts, was very well forecast, and the 12-20"+ range was very representative. As good as this forecast was across the forecast area, there were issues just outside of the region that although not technically part of the forecast, due detract from the overall quality of the effort.

Brain cramp...I was thinking that was 2009.

Don't remember that one...probably not a great sign lol

Yea, 8-10" in the CTRV.

I never like seeing epic totals in the mid atl....90% of the time when that is the case, you can immediately eliminate upper tier SNE snowfall and be right. LBSW has been the theme, and continues to be, this season.

Yea, I am thinking more like widespread 8-14".

I think we are stuck with the bloated H5, at this point....I don't see that tightening up and going under SNE. The monster band will come through, drop a foot, then another day of nuisance. The initial band will be weakening as it passes through, and the secondary will begin to compensate back east.

Yea, out in PA and NYS, but without any arctic air, I doubt its 40" again.

Yes. More often than not...that Dec 17 case was in the minority, but I think this one maybe, too.

More often than not, nothing can be nailed down at this range, but that is not always the case. Folks were screaming the same crap when I emphatically called that subby area over my head for several days leading into the 12/17 event. Lets see what happens...if its still there tomorrow, then some may need to deal.

Undoubtedly, on average. Yes. Agree.

Yes....blend of guidance, and past experience with similar systems. JMHO....you do you, I'll do me. lol

Yea, except for CTRV, I don't think this one will have big subby holes....not with that flow. But what I am saying is I don't think that is just the model depicting the CTRV too widely....I think there is also a trasnfer ongoing to the coast. JMHO.

I don't think that is an entirely fair comp....I understand the inherent risks of the range, but I feel as though this one is more table than avg at this lead...at least the ens. Probably owed to the synoptic synergy that has been flagging this period.

I wouldn't even say that....its a flag for a few inches under whatever the highest amounts end up being. At the end of the day, with that 850 inflow, I don't think there is a great disparity between haves and have nots....save for the CTRV...downslope should be bad.

Yea, you are on the edge....climo dictates that you prob catch the SW edge of the redevelopment, however, I do like my area a bit better in this case.

Its not a huge deal....just means maybe 10" in central CT, instead of 14".

Ultimately, I agree about my area remaining snow because the OP is more amped than the steadfast EPS mean, however, I do see the relative lull in your area as a very prominent feature.

I agree...issue is where does it bloom and how late lol I have always bought the first H5 closure jack in mid atl, with a lull either in NYC or CT, then secondary maxima ORH points ne into ME.

It makes sense to me....just as the precip type concerns do out my way. There is going to be an area of lesser QPF between the original H5 closure back in PA, and the coastal taking over.