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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was saying earlier...this is akin to one of the post ERC hurricanes.....as it approaches, the cat 4-5 winds go "poof", as the circulation becomes large and ragged, and the weenies start to focus on the areal coverage of surge and cat 1-2 winds. Same thing here.....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed....the "no blockbuster in the second half of a mod or strong nina" rule looks to stand.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You see it time and time again....everyone talks up how slowly it moves...capture this, and cut off that....crawl over there....then as we get near the event...."nice thump".....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like it....I'd love it if the ULL didn't stretch from Raliegh, NC to MHT.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a nice thump, but not much sign of the "crawling, stalling, etc"....looks like a pretty ordinary slug that sweeps through.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    He just said eastern areas may not like it...no specification. But he elaborated that he meant CC, which I get.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I wasn't crazy about that, either. NAM is usually pretty good with that, as well as mid level warming.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, gotcha.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gotcha. Yea, that blows.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also limits the ceiling for other spots, which obviously you don't care about. I'd like to tighten it up....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAM looks like most other guidance now....I normally agree with Jeff, but not sure what the concern is at this point...unless "eastern areas" means the cape and far southeast MA.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is the NAM went NW at 12z, then to Bermuda...now NW. Most models we needed to go NW bc of the previous se trend.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trend undeniable? It was over Bermuda last run...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Traffic disaster was 12/16/07.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    NAM is useless at this range.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    How?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You guys will go back eventually...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    God, no....I will be Vegas for several days.....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sucking up to Tip?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great working for the state, bc you get to stay home without burning a day in the biggies.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just about the same as me, except I has a swath of 6-10" in the valley.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably latter half of Monday PM into Tuesday night for you.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The west slope of ORH hills have sneaky screw potential IMO....near Dave.
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