40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully I can get into kind of a sweet spot, where I can get the dying lift from the initial surge to the west, then catch the INVT snows...

GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS.

I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise.

Hopefully my latitude finally pays some dividends. I know its not much of a difference from Wilmington, but you would be shocked at how often mother nature has managed to shove that extra 10-12 mi of latitude up my rear, since I moved here.

Well, you said Greenland ridge and -EPO....so that is neg NAO and neg EPO, which is why I was wondering why you were ambivalent.... I agree.....neg NAO is game changer....that goes, and you have my forecast Feb, which is no fun. Just a hunch, but I still feel like we would steal some decent snow, though.

Yea, I will gamble with this. If we get a big February, I think your Jan 2011 call still has merit. It is beyond difficult to accurately predict a pattern several months out, never mind the precise timing of it....then to have it result in the literal forecast sensible appeal, as far as snowfall amounts.....heh, yeesh.

I just mean for most of SNE....yea, should be some mixing well south.

Remember the trend all season, which is typical of mod strong la nina....guidance tries to model a very big east coast storm, only to have it trend more moderately within the final 72-96 hours, as models are more able to aptly resolve the inherent difficulty of achieving a proficient phase with a fast-flow, mod la nina regime. We just saw this happen to the mid atl (it is phasing, but later)....better shot with latitude, but still going to be tough. Nothing wrong with that....we would all take a 6-8" snowfall about now, but just acknowledging this. I think the realistic ceiling here will end up like 6-10", maybe 8-14" type deal....big dump, but nothing anyone, apart from Will, is going to recall five years from now.

Sell.

Completely reasonable....good over/under.

What is wrong with that? Do you mean its just a finger ridge, and not a bonafide block?

It would be a first for me....perhaps Will can rattle one off. This does look like about as a good a shot as you will see, though. Remember....I am still expecting greater than 30" of snow IMBY, so I'm not exactly saying that winter is over, either....I just think you are going to have a hard time landing a truly big fish.

Yea, I understand. I mentioned that I was just commenting on the runs

Some relatively underwhelming dynamics on some of these runs with the H5 low kind of sloppy....that's why its taking like 30 hrs to get 14" of snow. Obviously meaningless at this point, but something to watch for. People have this slow mover, duration fetish, but 9/10 times its dynamics that drive of excessive snows...not duration. Usually like half of the 30 hours is nuisance variety....its all about how intense the dynamics are in they prime window of time, which is seldom linger than about 12 hours. Its gets very banded after that.

Go for it ...you do a good job laying it all out there...and I do mean ALL of if...haha

Biggest event in 5 weeks.

Yea, I'm over it, at this point....just been a seasonal theme....past few seasons TBH. It will even out, eventually.

Only flag that I see for next week is that the H5 low is a shade north for my liking on some of these ensemble means.....other than that, its been consistently a good look. But I think if you're looking to max potential, would like to see that shift south a bit.

I know that there is a block, but I feel as though these "slow" movers are never quite as slow as originally modeled.

Yea, line looks like it gets to your area.

Easterly winds are usually not helpful in Rockport.

Final Call for tomorrow, and a quick look ahead to next week. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/tuesday-night-wednesday-morning-snows.html

Freezing lines at warmest point...most of damage is done by this point

Yea, this looks reasonable.