40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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What are the result for it this year? I remember your correlation began very promising, but has struggled of late. No offense, as that if often the case in this field and doesn't mean that there is not value there. I do agree that summer has more predictive utility with respect to the winter time NAO, than does October.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Just going off of memory, but I think 10/2007 was very mild around these parts....pretty benign autumn until the switch got flipped about 12/3. -
I get it, but we were due for some bad modoki karma.
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There are no absolute correlations. There is no index that is always going to work out in the favored manner...not within a realm as a chaotic as the earth's atmosphere. There are too many other variables at play. 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 were great...hope we pull off another +NAO! The frame of mind should not be "modoki, HUGE snows...or +NAO, see you next year.".....but rather, there is a modoki, so I like my chances"....or "The NAO will likely be positive, so there is less margin for error".
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That mentality is silly. Its not a fraud 5...its very valid. I mean, the previous two modoki seasons prior to these past two duds were 2004-2005 and 2014-2015....2009-2010 also, but the strength of it made the STJ a bit too prevalent for us. Short memory.
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Yea, always remain mindful a poster's location when considering their perspective. The first thing that I thought of after reading that was "well, you live on the cape, dude". lol
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Exactly.
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Looks like a milder version of 1968-69...how much milder and how much snow dependent upon NAO. Jeff must be just naked and sprawled out on a bear skin rug in the woods, oiling himself.
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That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me.
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Right....MBY.
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There are several seasons throughout my life that I would rate as worse than last year.
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I can IMO....2011-2012 was worse for me. Got boned in the October deal, and the rest was a non starter. At least I got that MECS in December during the holiday season.
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Yes. The euro looked great last year at this time. Again, not to discount the fact that there are some factors working against us, but it could def. look worse IMO.
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I don't put much stock in that...it essentially means there is a heightened risk for below normal snow relative to climo...this isn't news considering an intensifying la nina. It doesn't mean a repeat of last season is en route.
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Bingo. There is SOME value to it if used appropriately, which Judah is not doing.
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Not exactly. I do think that December will be the best month, but will explain some other periods to watch. I feel like two portions of the season in particular are relative wild cards that may make of break the season. My outlook will be out in a few weeks...it should be much easier to read this season, so you won't need to set aside several hours, either. If you want to exhaustively review the fundamentals, which I encourage, that will option will exist.
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I thought it looked serviceable. It wasn't a non-starter....especially north.
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Yea, its a no-brainer that if De flops in a nina, you are screwed. But even the EURO looks good for December.
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Looks like some piggly wiggly for January.
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We get it....it will never snow again because of the incredible expanding Hadley Cell. lol I agree with you regarding N Stream dominance...
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I feel like the odds of a ratter have decreased from a month ago...for us, anyway.
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I actually think that NAO in January is neutral on the euro...even a hair negative. AO is def. +. February is def cooked in that regard.
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Hopefully we can get that ridge to be fairly wide, and poke poleward...its nuances like that that usually make or break a winter in a less than ideal regime overall.
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I think the "wet dream" scenario is that an early season NAO hands off to some PNA assist, as the La nina relents following a mid winter thaw. TONED the #*## down 1995-1996. One major difference being the absence of the southern stream and of course, milder overall.
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Hadn't seen that, but makes perfect sense to me. I will also add, that January and February don't exactly look like train wrecks in the depiction...NAO not withstanding. Cold source appears in tact, though I am needing to twist my head to angles that I shouldn't approaching 40. My guess is gradient city for JF. Maybe SNE and even perhaps N mid atl biased Dec, before CNE/NNE wears the crown for JF.
