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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm sure that broke your heart. It seems worse for la nina than it is for el nino. I did see that and actually quoted and commented on it. What I said was that it is the most disturbing piece of data yet fans of winter on the east coast, and is a viable concern. 2005-2006 is one of my main analogs, and I have 2011-2011 as a strong extratropical Pacific analog. That said, I am not yet imminently concerned. If December is awful even in New England, then sound the alarms.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    2011-2012 was NOT east based.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pat's weren't playing...I planned it that way.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at the daytime scenes...that degree of solar irradiance is comensurate with at least April.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just researched and confirmed that National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation was filmed during the spring...I always suspected that because of the scene in the beginning when they were going to cut down the xmas tree. The snow was very deep in shaded areas back away from the highway, but melted near the highway....those large variations in snow depth are representative of spring, not December.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, we were at Funky Murphy's Jamuary 2019.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I finished today. All decorated, too.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fisher hates snow
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't a fan of her ganstah tats...could have used a bit more cushion, but caboose was okay
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 6pm if a week day, 3pm if a weekend.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the smoking gun for change IMO....great post. I made a few posts about how we needed the convection to get out of the bowels of the maritime continent and move east towards the dateline. Theoretically speaking, the eastward propagation of la nina should help that.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's certainly a better overall analog than 2011....the latter is a great Pacific analog (except for the fact la nina was a modoki), but it just isn't a very appropriate representation of the polar domain. The reason 2016 was not higher on my list is because it was very decidedly modoki with a westerly QBO, which is not a conducive environment for blocking.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't, history does....the data is there.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It already went negative at 50mb during October. I included all of the -QBO La nina stuff in my outlook. We should see blocking reemerge later this season.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Rat is climo for November.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone does....just like 2017, and we slammed a correct forecast down the consensus' throat then, too.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wanna know what really pisses me off...when they supposedly have a blizzard on a holiday movie that stands everyone together for Chistmas, then you see them walk out the next day to like 2" of crust. Blizzard my ass
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I had known, I would have given you my spot. I didn't realize. We can make sure that doesn't happen at future events.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kevin @Sugarloaf1989, so glad you made it out and so very sorry to hear about your dad. Hang in there and hope to see you again soon.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are a blast to hang out with. Look forward to next month. I'll fire up a thread tomorrow.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it sounds like a cop out in some ways, but that is how I see it and I posted ample research as to why.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not going to be 1995-1996 or anything, but it won't rat.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly have zero concern about this winter...zip.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I should finish tomorrow, too..... not nearly as many leaves as I had Thursday.
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