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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He does tend to act like the PV is all that matters...very linear forecasting.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    My critique of him is that he is more of a researcher than a forecaster.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.wcvb.com/article/winter-weather-outlook-boston-massachusetts-area-2021-2022/38258335 Sounds a lot like my forecast, though I maybe a bit cooler in December and milder in January. He has 50" for Boston, I think I had 45-55".
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see December ending up a bit above normal, but its not going to be a torch. He must feel the PV is going to be disrupted late season, which is also my call.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went into the seasoning envisioning some of those -PDO/NAO 60's seasons, though obviously modified.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the 1983-1984 analog.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know....I was thinking the same thing...I can see that more for like 1997 or 1982 with individual, freak spring blizzards.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would say out of that awful group, fear 1953 the most.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    We aren't having a 2011. The vortex isn't as strong.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the RNA is why there was a sharp snowfall gradient N of NYC....not unlike Feb 1969.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    How often do we see huge signals dampen as they near?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly think 1995 is a good analog to start the season...main difference being that the PNA may not be quite as robust...we'll see. That would be more of an issue for the MA in terms of snowfall, and mean that it probably wouldn't be as cold overall.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I buy it. Maybe time for subscriptions in a week or so.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, October and early Novie were very mild. Strange because I also anticipate a bit of a STJ presence this season, which is one peculiar trait for a la nina season that that year had.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This pattern reminds me of that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course Will remembers precisely how many leaves blew done throughout SNE in the event...I was just happy to be in the ballpark-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing. That is what this storm reminds me of.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is always something that can go wrong in any setup, but on average there is more margin for error with a big NAO block than with a positive NAO.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I get it...just giving you a hard time. Even for me, enormous NAO blocks are a bit riskier.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is actually a pretty good match, too...albeit it also stronger.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I actually listed last year as one of the best ENSO analogs in terms of placement of anomalies, but I agree this season will be weaker with respect to ONI. Of course, its much more couple than last season, so it probably won't "act" weaker... Bottom line is that season should "look" more like a la nina when all is said an done, despite being "weaker".
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup, same page.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm excited about the future in general, but not imminently intrigued by anything.
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