40/70 Benchmark

Yea, our climo this close to the ocean lags the solar calendar by a good month...which is why our cold peaks from about 1/20 to 2/1 and snowfall from about 2/1 to 2/10...right up to warm-tushy-car-seat season.

Yea, I don't think those warming subsurface trends will continue much longer. Do you have the source for your long range IOD forecast?

I actually like seeing that this time of year, anecdotally speaking, anyway...no correlation maps or anything haha.

No, my point was it was warmer than 2021...not that it was very warm, per se...

My early hunch is ample poleward Aleutian ridging with -PNA.

High of 96 today after 91 yesterday.....look like will make 4 consecutive of 90+ through Wednesday. My p&c for tomorrow has a high of 103 with a HI of 111...worst I could find....not the jack I yearn for

Don, DM me if it comes to that....

87.1

@Stormchaserchuck1..here are SSTs from Augus to November 2021, preceding the only -WPO DM since 2016-2017. Now here is last year, which was featured a major DM +WPO...check out the difference around the Indian Ocean and even east of Japan...

Agreed......I am going to use your SST WPO correlation this year. I took my first stab at the WPO last year and missed it.

This article seems to suggest a positive correlation between the AMO and WPO, which adds up intuitively based on the continued +AMO, but I haven't looked closely throughout history. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15998

Yea, I agree with this...I'm just saying there is a reason that -PNA/-NAO patterns have struggled more and it's the west Pacific. When they worked in the past, it was always with a -WPO. We look poised for yet another +WPO season.....ugh.

Agree.

Going to need to see some huge changes in the subsurface to see a Modoki, but I'm not overly concerned with orientation when ENSO is this weak...just not that important.

Agree. I don't necessarily mean a frigid December...just active and not prohibitively warm.

I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

You need to parse through analog seasons and determine what value there is to be gleaned from each, and then how to apply it to your forecast.

Depends on the how they are applied....analogs in the explicit sense, ie verbatim with the expectation of a replica season evolving....yes. I don't use them that way.

Damn, Philly is fast...was about to post the IRI update lol. Looks like El Niño is off the table...gonna either be cool neutral or weak La Niña, but given what we know about the state of the globe...probably wise to err on the side of caution and assume weak La Niña type of net impact. That said, what last season taught me is don't ENSO be a prohibitive factor in your analysis and discretion with analogs....ie, if you see strong value in a season, then go ahead an include it...even if its neutral or warmish ENSO. There is no way anyone could have had the Aleutian low reflected in their forecast composite for last season had they restricted themselves to solely cool ENSO seasons.

10 years? I found 2017-2018 pretty enjoyable.

There are very varied impacts of volcanic eruptions that are dependent on magnitude and location of said eruption....I read some articules on it after Honga a couple of years ago.