40/70 Benchmark

Dynamic weighting, too...if you're on the fringes like I am, it's 80% SREFS, but if you fear taint...it's GFS/NOGAPS-heavy.

Oh yea...I'm sure the Nemo 8"/hr or whatever will be SW of me....but I doubt I get under a foot.

Breaking what down?

Right, so not the insane rates they get to the southwest, but we should still get a major event

You would think I stand a chance at not getting totally boned with that trajectory...NJ-NYC-CT, although granted it won't be as intense up here.

No, but deep easterly inflow does.

Well Forecast Friday-Saturday Mess Storm Goes According To Plan The forecast for the mixed bag of precipitation that traversed the area last night and today was highly accurate. There were very few surprises here, as mid level warmth allowed for mixing to the south of the Mass pike, which limited accumulations in these locales. However, further to the north, beyond route 2 and near the borders of New Hampshire and Vermont, respectively, precipitation remains all snow and several inches accumulated. Final Grade: A

Pretty straight forward, easy forecast for last night into today...something tells me tomorrow night into Monday will be a bit more challenging.Final Grade: Ahttps://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/well-forecast-friday-saturday-mess.html

Very possible...I hope not.

Right....and my area has around an inch now....not that I expected that, but you get why I'm trying not to lose it.

I was all over models being too quick with the capture on that....I remember I opined on it in the NYC thread and had to run for my life....but nailed it.

Hell, recall Dec 2020.... @dendritewas the butt of all cirrus jokes, and ended up with 40".

4.5" total here

I agree, but if I get 5", I'll break every single one of my kid's toys.

I will be shocked if 00z doesn't inch back N.

I mentioned last night, we don't know where the banding will set up yet....we think we know by looking at QPF charts, but we don't. March 2018 constantly had the big QPF near KPYM and I was near the gradient....31.5" later..... If it keeps trending worse, okay issue...but this looks like wobbles to me...like John said, we've just maxed out on how far N this can get.

I agree...I'm stepping back from models a bit bc I'll only drive myself, and everyone else, nuts over whether I'm getting 12 or 24".

Often guidance never really catches up to the later maturation.

I had you 5-10" and KCON right near the line of 5-10"/10-15".

I hear you....always leery when all of the jeering is coming from guys well south of you...you do't know whether to laugh or cry-

Other models waffling....JMA, sitn' back smiln'...

Doesn't look like much of a trend at all at my latitude...

I''m not as sure about that....

How has that trended?

Does that jive or am I off?