40/70 Benchmark

These days, the blog ends up dropped into the toilet, after ma nature defecates on our collective grapes.

I love Eric from snowy Maine piling on like a cheerleader with the "100" emoji

Well, I said give it until mid month....this failure gets us there. Barring the prexmas miracle event, I'm marching inexorably towards placing a neon 1989 at the top of my xmas tree waiting for the ball to drop, hopefully on my fucj(king skull and putting me out of my misery.

Good news is one less blog to write.

Of course, it was way too far south for last week, and it ended up being rain, but it will nail this one being too far to the south. Can't make it up. Past decade....if it snows for SNE, it's wrong, if it doesn't, it's right.

It's amazing....December just always sucks. Whether it's a torch, subtle cold like last year, or frigid like this year...it just doesn't snow.

Great, rain and then whiffed to the south before the warm up.

If you blindly look at guidance without any ability to process the events of the past several years, or think critically, sure.

Well, in that case...phew.

Doesn't have to be of that magnitude to be a grinch.

I think that is a pre-requisitie to getting better...but it's a lateral move.

Same, but I need other guidance to get better today, or it's time to bail.

Man, UK giving me yuletide lapdance.

The probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels given the active pattern and at least seasonable cold throughout the first half of the month, but it remains dubious for the coastal plane given the milder turn prior to the holidays. In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. Look familiar???

Is the GFS as interested in SNE snow as the Sox were in Alonso?

It's an ensemble member.

I had a little black ice on the driveway, but roads were fine here.....finally melted the ice off of my stairs from last week.

Yea, I def. see the rationale, but my issue with this is that, as you intimated, it's based solely on ENSO...which you have opined is becoming less of a forcing mechanism, anyway (not to mention it's meager), but beside the point. My concern with that kind of perfunctory (not meant in a derogatory-dickish way) is that it neglects the potential implications of the stratosphere, which is primed to have an influence this season given the extreme easterly QBO in concert with the high solar output and background cool ENSO. The implication of this, per my deep dive, is that we are especially prone to both episodic +TNH intervals born of stratospheric reflection events, which render said polar field abandonment moot, and a subsequent major SSW that actually will result in a full reversal.

I vehemently disagree.

It's not like I was biased towards NE cold and snow, either...I think the work reflects that. Thus far I have been too warm, and by a significant margin. Last year I was also too warm.

Lucky SOB-

I will tell you right now, there is no way my seasonal sequence will work out entirely...I understand that going in. A seasonal forecast as detailed as mine is never going to be as nuanced as the actual pattern that evolves....it's akin to expecting a weekly product to nail the deformation zone for a storm at day 16; it just isn't practical. I hope to get the general idea...while I said turning warmer in the 2nd half of December, and then colder again mid January, there is no way it will work out entirely like that. I'm sure there the timing will be off, and there will be some colder periods interspersed during the advertised warmth.

@qg_omegaReally not sure what the point of trolling my hedge is? If I end up wrong, I'll admit it, as I always do. I think if we did a poll, the board would overwhelmingly reflect that. All kidding aside, everyone who takes the time to articulate their thoughts into a cohesive forecast is going to get it wrong at times, otherwise no one would ever learn anything. It seems patently silly to mock said efforts on a forum that is designed to be an outlet for such endeavors.

I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.