40/70 Benchmark

No EURO reports? I thought it made some pissah moves at H5....

Maybe, but waaaaay down on my list.

Yea, large market New Foundland Dodgers.

And CoastalWx knows this all to well!!

You mean there's still a chance? What trends do we need to look for? "Well look, if the storm wanted to be here... (pregnant pause) it would be here".

Similar to sports...atmoaphere is run by John Henry lately.

GYC

All of the above. AOTB

Eh....thanks, but I'm good

Does this look familiar? Ocean Storm Poised To Brush Region On Sunday-Sunday Night Accumulations Largely Limited To Cape & Islands It appeared on Monday as though the second major winter storm within a week may impact the area with heavy snows, however, it now appears as though the region will be largely spared. Synoptic Overview The ingredients for major storm are still indeed brewing tonight. The two systems are still expected to phase over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, which makes for an ominous set up if one were to take a cursory glance at the chart below. However, as the weekend unfolds, two elements conspire to facilitate a track largely out to sea despite what is prototypically an ideal western CONUS ridge placement for a major northeast US strike. First of all, there is a follow up "kicker" system dropping into the northern plains, which acts to force the lead storm to continue moving along before it can phase proficiently. This prevents the low from gaining as much latitude as it otherwise would have with a western ridge thought Idaho and Montana. Secondly, there is an area of lead convection well south of New England that works in conjunction with the aforementioned trailing kicker over the northern plains to bias the movement of the system on a more eastward trajectory than it otherwise would have given that western CONUS ridge position. Thus the system cannot gain enough latitude to have a major impact on the region. That being said, some significant snowfall cannot be ruled out over the cape and islands on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Expected Storm Evolution Light snows will overspread the cape and islands around midday on Sunday, and quickly grow moderately moderate in intensity on Nantucket Island. Snow may grow briefly heavy for a time on Nantucket Island, as snowfall grows more moderate over the rest of the cape. Light snow may develop back to the south shore of Boston with light accumulations. Windy conditions and some beach erosion are likely on cape cod and the islands, regardless of snowfall. Precipitation then pulls back out to sea later in the evening and ends by midnight. There could potentially be up to an inch or two of snowfall on the cape, islands and south shore, from a combination of the fringe of the storm and ocean effect snow.

YES...I have made this comparison probably at least a dozen times. Seen the movie play out this season before and it's a waste of time that I hope to withdraw from over the weekend.

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

Gonna guess the 12z EURO will be east of 06z, but west of 00z, but east of 18z, but west of 12z.....and not result in much snow here.

Two in diapers now, don't need to change mother nature this weekend.

This is what I think happens...it won't be sunny, but we'll end up with some sort of regurgitation of dynamics...throw a bib on mother nature, and then smear the content onto SNE.

Yea, I don't see it. Hope he's right.

Yea, and most of it in the clouds.

I will say south/central CT has sneaky bullseye potential because sometimes they have a bit more access to the parent southern moisture flow that gets entrained into these things...Feb 2013 is a classic example. I never see that kind of banding.

GFS is wrong.

Doubt it, but hopefully...pathway to that is redevelopment happening a tick sooner and ramping Saturday up...I don't see the first half over performing.

I think I will be more like 3-4"....5-6" are north of me....in and up.

Final Call for Friday-Saturday Mess Mixed Bag Likely Across The Region A storm system streaking east-northeast from the plains will impact the area beginning on Friday and into at least the early portion of Saturday. Whereas vast majority of storms this season have featured primarily snowfall given the persistently cold temperatures, the track of this system is likely to complicate the forecast concerning precipitation type across the region. Synoptic Overview The next system slated to affect the region ejects from the Pacific trough out into the plains by early on Friday. It begins to weaken as it approaches the northeast due to the sharing influence of the compressed height field between the polar vortex/Hudson Bay block dyad to the north, and the increasing southeastern heights in response to the parent trough out west. As the system continues to weaken, it is eventually forced to redevelop off shore to the southeast as it encounters the confluence flow around the vortex in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes, which may act to prolong snowshoers and advect in colder air during the day on Saturday. Expected Storm Evolution: Light rain will break out over southwest portions of Connecticut by the midday hour. Mixed precipitation will overspeed the balance of the region throughout the afternoon, with snow/sleet being the predominate precipitation type roughly north of the Mass pike, and a sleet rain mixture points south. While evaporative cooling may result in a brief period of snowfall over northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Mass, accumulations should be very light as precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and rain as the decaying mid level low triggers a southwesterly flow and warm advection aloft as it passes though central New England. A brief period of icing over the higher train is possible, however, this should not pose a serious hazard. Accumulating snow should continue well into the evening north of the pike and especially route 2 into the mid portion of the evening, with primarily sleet between the pike and the I 84 and rainfall points south. Precipitation will taper off across western New England by midnight with a mixed bag continuing east, as redevelopment begins to occur off of the coast. While this redevelopment will occur too late to prevent the transition to sleet and rain that will prohibit a heavier snowfall accumulation across the area, it will perhaps prolong nuisance snow showers during the day on Saturday, as colder air is drawn in on a northeast flow, from the vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. While these snow showers should not result in much in the way of accumulation during the day on Saturday, some icy spots are possible where refreezing takes place due to colder air being advected in on northeast flow around the developing low offshore. Final Call First Call Issued Tuesday, February 17th

Final Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/final-call-for-friday-saturday-mess.html Final Call First Call Issued Tuesday, February 17th

Up to a coating

Right.