40/70 Benchmark

This is actually pretty similar to the January 2022 event in terms of QPF distribution...same haves and have nots.

Much needed rain, regardless...but glad this one was a practice run.

Yea, it's going to be raining the majority of the day, but not going to add up to much outside of CJ land and the higher terrain. Very banded, and the bands will favor said areas.

Boxing Day on Columbus Day.

Miller up the Ass.

Don't worry, I'm sure there is another White Juan renactment this winter, on the heels of a primary through Buffalo that offers up a secondary appendage of false hope.

It was already beginning to grow more banded when it got into our area, and especially your's. There was one good initial pulse, and then it lightened up and I knew. The good ones come in like a wall. The rest of this storm will be banded crap.

There are execeptions.... but it's usually not a great sign when the precipitation struggles to get going...aside from a round of showers yesterday AM, it didn't really rain until mid-late evening. Obviously this is crude analysis because I don't dig in and forecast October rain events, but usually the "winners" get going with ease. January 7, 2024 was a great example of that...I got giddy when OES started up ahead of schedule during the day and that one did not dissapoint. Also works for changeover deals....Dec 1992 and March 2018....both instant crash-flips around mid night and off to the races. April 1997....late PM flip-bang. If you're squnting to see precip for hours on end or taking cat paws up the sphincter unlubed for several hours, you'd probably be best served to catch up on sleep and avoid dissapointment.

Last season was the most accurate snowfall forecast I have ever had, and I actually eneded up being too warm. I feel like I have made some adjustments to better account for CC moving forward....not that I'm going ot nail it every year, but hopefully mitigate the disasterous performances.

I can't have much more than a 1/2"...maybe .60". All I can say is I'm glad it's October and not January. I would have lost it....just like winter, scooter telling me I'm all set, only to still wind up one of the lower totals.

Pretty sure he's just in a bruised and battered persistence "forecasting" mindset.

Everything looks fine to me and about as confident as I've ever been that winter will be decent.

Good stuff. Nice to see raindance posting. We seem to be generally on the same page, but he is a bit colder.

I'm in no way implying a 1995 repeat...I understand how different the western PAC is and how much we have warmed...I get it. Just saying ENSO in a vacuum is a decent match.

The forecast winter EMI from JAMSTEC is very 2018 like...along with 1995 and 2021. The newest El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) guidance from JAMSTEC has also remained fairly consisted in it's depiction of an EMI value of around -.20 to -.30 during the boreal winter season. This range is similar to the EMI analogs of 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, which is supported by the similarity in both the placement (near 140 longitude) and the intensity of the respective subsurface cold pool analogs relative to 2025.

Well, remember...he has a pronounced cold bias.

Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking. Although 2005-2006 was pretty mild mid season, it was wintry in December and featured big blocking in March.

I think initially they are disregulated by the cold, so they get frantic....kind of like torchtiger...he races around to troll every thread wwith haste a the first signs of seasonal change.

100%. This is why I am so confident that my area will see more snowfall, even if it's a bit warmer. I do not feel warmth will be prohibitive for the vast majority of the season...at least not at this latiitude.

Direct Weather is as bad as any.

Yes, the issue was definitely increased stability...which may have been for a couple of reasons.

I think it's the same issue that plagued my seasonal forecasting during the 2023-2024 El Nino season...folks need to reevaluate more archaic methods of forecasting given the rate at which the modern climate is changing. I don't think forecasters take into account the redued gradient between the sub tropics and the tropics enough, which stifles convective instability. We are warming more rapidly with latitude.....just like nights are warming more rapidly than days. The general warming of the oceans outiside of ENSO also alters the equations, which is something that I failed to appreciate. Remeber...weather happens because of the gradients that result from the redistribution of heat....nothing else. Alter that gradient and conventional forecasting methods will not work.

Don't accept next time Scooter invites you over for nude holiday twister.

The loss of "fake cold" is how the majority of CC manifests...and we know how very real that phenomenon is.