40/70 Benchmark

Tricky part for me is I not only forecast the sensible weather, but the actual teleconnections, so this may matter to me more than most. Anyway, look forward to what you present.

I think the course of least regret is incorporating La Niña analogs, but emphasizing variability with respect to the PNA....including some +PNA cool ENSO analogs, as well...such as 2024 and 2000, which are both stellar polar analogs.

@Stormchaserchuck1I would consider 2008 a bit before tossing cool ENSO analogs....that year went on to be a late blooming, bonafide, albeit modest La Niña despite the warm subsurface encroachment from the west....even 1967 got down to -0.7 ONI, though it just missed official designation. Now, I don't think we cool quite as much as 2008 because the trades and SOI are a bit less impressive, but the subsurface is very similar, so I would extrapolate out a bit less development than that year. Keep in mind region 3.4 goes all the way over to 120W, so the warmth has a bit to go and you still have to factor a lag.

I think one thing we can say for certain is that any cool ENSO is going to maintain an eastern bias with that subsurface.

Chuck, 2008 is also pretty similar in the subsurface.....

Agree. I also think we may get out of the gates quickly.

Yea, I don't expect ton of snow, probably less than 1995-1996

Oh, of course...last year was extreme.

I think it will be variable with perhaps a slight nod to cooler ENSO like in the DM mean. But I am with you on some considerable +PNA periods. I don't see a 2022 like trough to Baja. I wouldn't mind a cool ENSO first half with a hand off to more neutral or warm in the second half.....that wouldn't kill me. lol I think given my mid season SSW hedge, we may not see a stock cool ENSO February, anyway.

Yes, well remember that we HAVE been ENSO neutral...in conjunction with the atmospheric lag given that the RONI just eclipsed -.50 this month, that seems par for the course to me. I wouldn't count out some cool ENSO like windows this season.

Chuck, I feel like eliminating cool ENSO analogs is a bit drastic and restrictive....I mean, I understand incorporating some ENSO neutral years and maybe even some weaker warm ENSO, but it's not like there is a furnace beneath 3.4, either. Not to mention the overall base state of the hemisphere given the west warm pool.

Yea, I don't expect a deeply negative RNA this season...never have.

Yea, going to have to watch it...but I think incorporating cool ENSO for a least the first chunk of the season is safe....there is a bit of a lag, too. I think 2012 may be a decent anti-log in this respect....if you look, the cool subsurface worked in from the west and decimated a developing warm ENSO, however, that season still went onto have some warm ENSO characteristics in terms of sensible weather. However, it did have more of a cool ENSO like Aleutian ridge.

We'll see, but the western ENSO flank has been devoid of a cold pool all summer. I don't see the erosion east.

2014 is about the best QBO analog I have ever seen, but I didn't factor it in because it was warm ENSO.

Yea, but the eastern side of ENSO still has a cold subsurface. 1996 is a pretty good comp, but the subsurface is a bit more considerable east...plus the trades were non-existent that year. This event will be stronger than that.

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that. I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

Yea, that was a blast-

I actually agree with you that this La Niña may end up a hair stronger than last year, after starting my deep dive.

Hard to say SOP....tough call-

Still not much reason for me to post. Back to Outlook....see ya in two weeks.

Maybe I came off more confrontational than I intended...didn't mean to put you on the defensive.