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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. One thing we need to keep an eye on is that this has evolved into a def. modoki look right now....going to have to take another peek at that in about a month before I issue. Saving grace maybe that its so damn weak that it may not eve really matter.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Made my mind up after seeing the Euro update.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I pretty much have my mind made up as to what my primary analog is going to be, but will see what happens over the course of the next few weeks. Part of me just wants to rattle things off early before I leave Friday night, but experience tells me to wait.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modest la nina intensity amid a negative QBO backdrop argues for that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I was asking is what does EP stand for? East Pacific?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove mentioned 1976....funny.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jim, like I said on Twitter...your work is very similar to mine, right down to the cited source...uncanny. Same page, bud.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am getting 2017-2018 vibes.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, at least we won't need to mow Yankee stadium...let the elephants graze....
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewxSeptember NAO value is out...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    EP?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    ?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not worried. Don't get me wrong, it sucked seeing that, but it doesn't change my early view on where we are headed.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance said the EPO should not be as hostile as it was last season. He is a great forecaster, but this shit is hard. He also has some favorable analogs, too. Let's see what his NAO formula has...should be out soon. Chuck's is negative. I never said it means it's wrong, but it's pretty tough to forecast the polar domain days in advance, never mind months.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Had the same thing last year...then little by little, they all got a clue.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bamwx feels as though Euro is too warm.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll sell that for now, though its certainly not comforting.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just going to say...I like Feb better lol
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does la nina look like? Stronger and/or more west based?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was hideous last year at this time, too...glad I ignored it. Maybe its right this year, but it has struggled with the tropics.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have noticed that structure....ie east vs west(modoki) isn't as important in weak events, as there is much more variance due to other exogenous factors......2000-2001 for instance was about as modoki as they come, but you never would have known it in terms of sensible weather....2008-2009 was also modoki and was pretty cold. Then again, 2005-2006 was very east based and yet pretty mild.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    96-97 was cool neutral FWIW.. How about 75-76, 89-90 and 2011-2012?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah....met degree taken from the kids' play pen?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not all about temps...it won't grow much due to limited sun this time if year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just mowed and trimmed for final time on Saturday...will start raking when I return from Africa
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