Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    78,297

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, I have noticed that all of the government agencies take a very lazy approach to la nina...especially with respect to longer lead times. Its always base-state, generic la nina climo....cold nw, warm SE, blah, blah. I understand that we don't have big blocking, so there is a risk, as Scott points out so diligently and incessantly, but I think they need to be a little more open minded with respect to these ENSO climo conceptualizations.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't mention it in my January update, but I think la nina will end up a bit more eastern biased than even I had forecast, so that probably did play a role in shifting the focus more later in the winter as opposed to December....this is probably part of the reason why I mixed up December and January. That was a very good point George, but its something I will touch upon more after the season ends, rather than in season. I tend to focus on ENSO more before and after the season, as opposed to during.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully stormier in CNE, as it was pretty dry north of the pike.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never had an issue with some strong gusts around 1K and near the coast...the bet was that I would lose power.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Let me know when I can collect from you and Noyes.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never pay any attention to wind threats....about once a decade they catch my attention.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea.....if that works out, then January just replaces December and I still have a shot to get to my interior totals....need the se areas to run into some tough luck, though. lol
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tried to tell him...unfortunately for him, I whiffed on December, the time he likes.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd be fine with that, too, since CJ land was ground zero then.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    They have actually gotten crushed synoptically speaking this season....MLK, and now this.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That also underscores John's point that the atmosphere seems to have parted ways with la nina a bit, in sharp contrast to the early season. You'd expect that more in a modest modoki el nino like 2015.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    And just like 2014-2015, I focused on the wrong driver in the NAO/PV.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that. 24-26 is the window for the PNA flex....not a huge deal over 3-4 days, anyway.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    East of ORH, def.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I almost favor that...told you earlier, I have been keying in on early March since last fall. Always thought that was the best window with highest ceiling of the winter in a general sense.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, 110.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sales people....weather takes you can sell.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2014. I agree.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is the first real threat that I am eying.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll need that to get the outlook anything over a C to C-......really mixed results this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, recycling, as well......I will probably prep it all at night, and put out in AM.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That fits better within the 3/1 to 3/15 window that I flagged back in my November diatribe, but it looked as of yesterday that the PNA incline was centered on about 2/24 to 2/26, or thereabouts.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit, I do have trash day tmw lol Deal.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought you said for at least a day. Why don't we say 6 hour minimum.
×
×
  • Create New...