40/70 Benchmark

Another inconspicuous Harv reference! Love those-

Feb 2015 beat that season as far as pack goes in Wilmington...I think Jan 2011 was about on par with Jan 1996.

So much for the cries of strong la nina...

I don't think that is a sign of an active PAC jet necessarily, however, the position of the ridging may imply some west coast troughing (-PNA)....the Hadley cell expansion is more of a longer term climate shift and while it does serve to augment se ridging, the primary impetus for a se ridge here would be the west coast trough resulting from the offshore position of that ridge. You need to be careful about about how you incorporate the Hadley Cell expansion into forecasting because it is not a stochastic feature, like the blocking, etc.

My argument is that the gradient (shear zone) resulting from the discord between a favorable arctic and hostile pacific set up perfectly for SW NE and the tri state region, and awfully for Maine....ie, waves just got shredded and attenuated upon entry into NE. I think a zone from me into Maine would have done better with either a little less blocking, or a better Pacific.

I'd kill for 2007-2008.

Considering what happened last year, I would be absolutely floored if we got south of piked again this season.

Sounds reasonable to me in a la nina.

93-94 is what came to mind with respect to Georgie-porgie's Euro image. Pay back is gonna be a b*tch for the south of pike this year, me thinks.

Yea, I wasn't sure what he meant. It's not ideal, but there would be ample cold around with stout neg EPO

I think the fact that the NHC headline in relation to Larry has included some mention of "rip currents" all week has continued to reveal all you need to know about their stance on the storm.

Yea, its watchable, but my interest is pretty tempered...not only battling shear, as you mentioned, but lots of land interaction.

This was never interesting in the least to me...not for a second. I know the trend has reversed, but even before that.

Nope. 0.0%

Interesting stat-

Just entered my radar, but still not interested.

Just a hunch, but I think we get one more bonafide threat this season and it should be respectable, unlike that fraud Henri. I am a fan of the forecasting dichotomy that Henri and Ida provided, though. I am not biased.....I make an objective call as I see fit. I was very bearish on Henri and insanely, aggressively bullish on Ida from the start.

Impactful night, but flooding and severe really aren't my thing. Hopefully the tropics get cooking again.

Not paying close attention, but hopefully worst stays south of me, as it seems it should. I don't need a Flash Flood jack. Leave that @Damage In Tolland

I'll take that.

You are looking at the First Call map from Thursday....I was on the wrong side of Terrabonne Bay...pretty close for 72 hrs lead...Final from early Sunday AM got the exact town correct and was 90 minutes too slow.

Not sure what you are looking at, but I predicted Port Fourchon.

A+ Forecast dating back to Thursday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/major-hurricane-idea-verification.html