40/70 Benchmark

That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away.

I would prefer it not be there, I don't care where it ends up. Those are the kiss of death for a nice event.

Yea, I hate that.

That's the plan...

The longer range still looks fine to me from xmas week and onward....the middle third of the month has looked poorly for a while now.

Maybe I miss December...seasonal forecasting is hard enough, but nailing every month is even harder. I missed February last year, but still did well overall. It's just so early to be grading anything... just let it all play out.

Zero.

Through the 20th? Not much.

Its not worth even trying to offer any worthwhile contribution right now until it snows.....same people who offer very little substance at all will only impugn the effort of others until it snows in their BY. Funny how this behavior is relegated to only those who never put anything worthwhile themselves. Its basically an infantile passive aggressive temper tantrum.

Early December is not a snowy time in SNE...people forever that.

A seasonal model is not going to properly diagnose a major disruption of the PV such as a split or displacement, anyway.

Ugh, so sorry. It could have easily been me that did that to you...so glad I quit years ago.

Advosiry/low end warn.

You never made an entrance

Is this heaven? No, its climo 101.

Yes.

Anyone who wants the NAM to be a good hit at day 2.5 with zero blocking needs to enroll in climo 101.

NAM looks good at this range.

The entire continent was devoid of cold in 2012...he doesn't what he is talking about. One of those people who reads an index and thinks that they have it all figured out.

No, it isn't.

This is very true.

I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts.

I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment.

If it showed a blizzard and Anthony had posted it, he would have been weenied mercilessly.