Eh....I'd be careful with absolute statements like that. Especially given how weak this event is going to be. I think that wold have more relevance with a stronger la nina. There is a reason that I binned the analogs by QBO phase and la nina intensity in that blog. I will touch more upon structure today, but again...I don't think that is a huge deal this season.
Its central based, but I don't think structure is as important in a modest event....marginal ENSO events are a lot more variable due to less ENSO forcing...especially lately with the HC expansion, etc.
It's not a huge factor...just another element.
However, I will add that I do not believe the fact that 22/35 of your listed major PV disruptions occured during easterly QBO seasons is a coincidence.
Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.
I learned that the hard way as a kid lol...I was throwing rocks at a nest...my dad warned me stop, then before I knew it, I was swarmed and had to be taken to the ER haha
I don't think so.....climo is established not by coincidence. Having that forecast be a "cop out" implies that you should be forecasting extremes, which is generally ill advised at extended leads.