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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Just bc the northern mid atl may not do as well as NE doesn't mean is a terd for them.
  2. Definitely is. No way it gets that strong.
  3. Yes times a million. I just did a blog post on this.
  4. Last major primer for outlook. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/structural-nuances-in-la-nina.html
  5. Hopefully once this humidity subsides late Saturday, we are done with it.
  6. Eh....I'd be careful with absolute statements like that. Especially given how weak this event is going to be. I think that wold have more relevance with a stronger la nina. There is a reason that I binned the analogs by QBO phase and la nina intensity in that blog. I will touch more upon structure today, but again...I don't think that is a huge deal this season.
  7. Its central based, but I don't think structure is as important in a modest event....marginal ENSO events are a lot more variable due to less ENSO forcing...especially lately with the HC expansion, etc.
  8. Agreed. I think odds of a weak are about 75%.....20% moderate, 5% neutral if I had to affix percentages.
  9. Yea, you nailed the one aspect that I am remiss about....love baseball postseason. I may catch some of WS and will be back for snow.
  10. It's not a huge factor...just another element. However, I will add that I do not believe the fact that 22/35 of your listed major PV disruptions occured during easterly QBO seasons is a coincidence.
  11. I agree....but the Euro is like .53, which is very weak...but I still think mod is a stretch.
  12. Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.
  13. Oh, yea...I agree. This season has a high ceiling, but its no slam dunk at all.
  14. My wife just got her green card, so we are going to see her family....she hasn't seen her parents in person for about 6 years.
  15. Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol
  16. I leave on 10/8 and will be in Africa until just prior to Halloween, so I'll try to send some nice waves across lol
  17. I learned that the hard way as a kid lol...I was throwing rocks at a nest...my dad warned me stop, then before I knew it, I was swarmed and had to be taken to the ER haha
  18. I have found this in the SNE threads everytime @Damage In Tolland posts. @ORH_wxman and @CoastalWx can verify.
  19. I don't think so.....climo is established not by coincidence. Having that forecast be a "cop out" implies that you should be forecasting extremes, which is generally ill advised at extended leads.
  20. Not what I said. All I implied was at least one month averaging a neg NAO/AO is likely.
  21. Dec 2001 had a SSW? Wow, that one was useless lol Latter Dec/early Jan makes sense to me for this year
  22. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html
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