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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just see the light at the end of the ennui by August.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its been a rainy summer in contrast to last year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be all in on a bonafide tropical event impacting the area, but this is the same crap that we always get....at least give me a Bob or Gloria deal. Pretty good rule of thumb that impact will be tempered when you have a minimal tropical system traversing land for hundreds of miles before veering across the southern half of the region.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Worthwhile tropical activity and the onset of seasonal transition/winter outlook prep.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess it beats debating 87 vs 83, but nothing I'll waste time and energy blogging about.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it will be windy for the usual spots, but NBD. The big amount of water in a short duration over the interior will be the biggest issue.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wake me up when July ends.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it was still technically an el nino.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, we had two consecutive el nino events ending the season before last.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its hard enough to accurately predict the mean index states/intensities over the course of a given DM period, but also nailing the timing/evolution and how those nuances impact sensible weather, like snowfall....good luck lol.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not explicitly, but I stated that the evolution with respect to the early season PNA was actually more redolent of el nino...this implies that it is simply due to a greater degree of variance with respect to more modest ENSO events, as Steve said.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually had the PNA evolution backwards last season...I thought it would begin more hostile, and get better over the course of the season. However, I nailed it in the aggregate.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Smoking gun was the gradient that ensued between the favorable polar fields and the hostile Pacific...the position of that over the majority of the season determined the haves and have nots in terms of snowfall. SW was best because they sheared as the approached NE due to the mean position of the gradient over the course of the season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, well I didn't base the snowfall forecast entirely on ENSO, though it was certainly considered. EPO was pretty hostile last season and the PNA was really only favorable in December, so I'm not sure that was very telling, either....but I agree the Pacific is very important in general.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't a weak la nina...it was moderate. I think it was just that the shearing zone between pretty favorable polar fields and a hostile Pacific set up in such a manner that systems attenuated as they approached the pike region. This hurt me and really killed points NE of me. Some spots to the north lucked out w the mega band in Dec, but it ironically set up NW of me....that was bad luck, although even that system was fading somewhat as it moved NE.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know you are being facetious, but I see nothing to suggest that at this early juncture.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how the two previous el nino events acted like la nina, and now we got a la nina that acted like el nino...the common denominator? They all porked me-
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree, and it would be silly to ignore that; however, it would be just as silly to disregard 100 years worth of data.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Are we still pretending that we understand exactly how said changes will manifest into the atmosphere moving forward? I understand that the global climate is changing, but enough with beating people over the head for referencing past analogues....we get it; but it doesn't entirely negate the value of the analog. Interestingly enough, I am willing to bet that the vast majority of those doing this have never ventured to issue a seasonal outlook in their lives.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    92.5 @ home....Hi of 92.7
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    88.7 is the high so far at home, but I'm sure we will make 4 days.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Plus, I honestly think you may have kept working if a couple of things had gone a bit differently.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was my next reply lol Dial N-O-O-S-E# for our love scorned directory....
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