40/70 Benchmark

You can use analogs from back then...you just need to remain mindful of the fact that the climate has changed.

2016-2017 was actually a decent snowfall season in SNE...not great, but not bad....near normal on average, and even better across the southern half of the region. Yes, I pretty much agree with everything else that you have stated here...I was just speaking to the intensity of la nina. In the early going, this la nina is definitely more of a modoki with the cool anomalies focused west. NAO should be positive. One thing that I would like to add is that the PNA and PDO, while generally positively correlated, are not necessarily always lock-in-step....so you need to be careful about assuming a predominantly RNA pattern. Last season for instance, featured one of the most negative PDO seasons on record, yet the mean DM PNA value was only very slightly negative. The pattern was actually mainly PNA after the record RNA month of December. Its also about where you live...here in New England, we do absolutely great with decidedly negative EPO and variable PNA...its further to the south that needs the decidedly +PNA.

I'm not that worried about the intensity of la nina....sure, its going to peak at moderate early this fall, buts its going to be weak for the vast majority of winter.

That would be a theoretical positive for winter in the east.

Nice to see you in here, Howard.

Trace of rain here from a brief shower today.

Nah, they got a WS...he was a pretty big part of that 2018 title.

Sale going down (AGAIN) was the last straw for me.

CJ lol

Yea, I hear ya.....its black and white to me. We can agree to disagree.....apparently management agrees because the deadline, at best, can be viewed as a neutral impact on this season's team in the aggregate. Theoretically on paper you are right....they have enough talent to make the PS and get hot at the right time, but you need to make decisions concerning trade deadline strategy based upon the probability that that will occur and it just isn't high enough this season to justify not trying to plan for the future to at least a degree. They ended up with some extra prospects.

This team is not good enough to compete for a title....I'm not really interested in competing for the 8th wild card slot.

Hosmer to the Sox....boing.

Jerry is da man haha. He and Steve run our forums. I think I am probably going to fall into the so-so camp for you guys, but its early....

TGW

"We just traded the 8th best catcher in MLB for Pee Wee Herman and his spank bank, but we're still trying to make the playoffs".

I think that will change in a pretty big way in about a couple of weeks.

I beat Mario 3 many times....Mario II is the only one I never beat. Mario I only once; that was hard, too. I was just about unbeatable on Mario Kart....I used to snipe people with shells while I was in front of them hahha

It was the best one. Admittedly, I used the cheat flutes to beat it lol

I think eventually we see that surface and the warmth from the higher latitudes of the PAC will trend south towards the dateline....this is usually the early stages of the system of ocean currents that facilitates the development of modoki el nino down the line. I think the big IOD plays into kick starting that process, too....nothing in the atmosphere is coincidental.

Did they really call it that in Mario 3? I just remember racoon Mario...

Its because this is not a canonical la nina, its a modoki...different beast with an entirely disparate convective forcing scheme...just as modoki el nino often leaves the west high and dry, as opposed to canonical el nino.

I think another significant factor with respect to ENSO is whether or not there is a concomitant IOD response, as this, in addition to the MEI, helps to inform how well established the ocean-air coupling is. This is important with respect to the MJO because the MJO is essentially a tentacle of the vast tropical ocean-air coupling that the IOD-ENSO system represents.

The forecasting follies with respect to the MJO are a microcosm of why so many forecasts mishandle ENSO....if you think about it, this makes sense because why is ENSO even important? It is ONE OF the main determinants that dictate the origin, placement and ultimate evolution of the MJO. The fact of the matter is that like ENSO events, not all MJO events are created equally, and it is a knowledge of the interaction with other ambient atmospheric variables that informs our knowledge of this....IE Just as one weak la nina event may be east based, and impacts the MJO quite differently then a west based (modoki event), it may also be more or less coupled with the atmosphere. This is also applicable to MJO waves in that you need to also study the ambient hemispheric landscape in order to determine how coherent the MJO wave will be, which is to say what other factors will attenuate or augment its impact on the pattern.

NOAA/CPC is terrible with respect to ENSO....very broad brush approach that exudes laziness and complacency. I remember in my 4th outlook leading up to the 2017-2018 season, I specifically pointed out their tame outlook and made a mockery of it by explicitly stating why it would fail...the character of la nina was polar opposite to that of the one the prior season (2016-2017), despite being of comparable intensity. Four months later we got the "All Hell Breaks Loose" March.

We see this with respect to winter, as well.....while I think ENSO is a very prominent player in the atmosphere, there are three other factors that need to be considered: 1) There are a multitude of other variables at play in the atmosphere and its an exercise in futility to consider any one in a vacuum....there needs to be more time spent on considering how said factors will interact because this is the key to successful seasonal forecasting. 2) People tend to generalize all cold and warm ENSO events and only distinguish between intensity, when in fact its the structure of the SST anomalies that are at least as important, and probably more so. 3) As John has mused about ad nauseum, we need to be constantly re evaluating our perception of how ENSO interacts with that is an incessantly evolving globe around us. There need to be more critical thinking utilized by the general consensus because the approach with respect to ENSO has gotten fairly lazy, especially by certain government agencies.