Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
  • Posts

    72,810
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. This is the smoking gun for change IMO....great post. I made a few posts about how we needed the convection to get out of the bowels of the maritime continent and move east towards the dateline. Theoretically speaking, the eastward propagation of la nina should help that.
  2. It's certainly a better overall analog than 2011....the latter is a great Pacific analog (except for the fact la nina was a modoki), but it just isn't a very appropriate representation of the polar domain. The reason 2016 was not higher on my list is because it was very decidedly modoki with a westerly QBO, which is not a conducive environment for blocking.
  3. I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that.
  4. I don't, history does....the data is there.
  5. It already went negative at 50mb during October. I included all of the -QBO La nina stuff in my outlook. We should see blocking reemerge later this season.
  6. Everyone does....just like 2017, and we slammed a correct forecast down the consensus' throat then, too.
  7. Wanna know what really pisses me off...when they supposedly have a blizzard on a holiday movie that stands everyone together for Chistmas, then you see them walk out the next day to like 2" of crust. Blizzard my ass
  8. If I had known, I would have given you my spot. I didn't realize. We can make sure that doesn't happen at future events.
  9. Kevin @Sugarloaf1989, so glad you made it out and so very sorry to hear about your dad. Hang in there and hope to see you again soon.
  10. You are a blast to hang out with. Look forward to next month. I'll fire up a thread tomorrow.
  11. Yea, it sounds like a cop out in some ways, but that is how I see it and I posted ample research as to why.
  12. It's not going to be 1995-1996 or anything, but it won't rat.
  13. I honestly have zero concern about this winter...zip.
  14. I should finish tomorrow, too..... not nearly as many leaves as I had Thursday.
  15. We have a few tables in the back...Bob, Winterwolf and I right now
  16. I have to hit the leaves for the final run tomorrow.
  17. I'll see what I can do...I should be there by 2. We did one year...
  18. Nah, I took him down...I campaigned relentlessly throughout all of the regional forums.
  19. I would suggest looking at their snowfall totals from my main analogs, but as a guess, near normal temps and slightly above average snowfall.
×
×
  • Create New...