40/70 Benchmark

@OHweatherYes, decent blocking potential in latter Novie and December, then again late in Feb into March. I feel while the December blocking is higher confidence, March has the greater ceiling. I don't expect anything epic in December and I am betting against an early seaso. SSW, though I agree the PV will take some shots.

Likewise. You coming the 20th?

Jim, your final thoughts out later this month?

That, along with 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 are my main analogs.

Yea, missed the N plains last year, but did well otherwise. The main reason I have that warm January and somewhat cooler Feb evolution this year is because alot of my analogs had a bit more PNA and less hostile arctic in February after the pattern really bottoms out in January. It's also due to the fact that I think the PV takes a pretty big hit early in Feb or maybe even the tail end of Jan. If it waits until March, or does not happen, then my second half will be off. As far as the mean DJF, I don't think there will be many voices of dissent with respect to that this fall...its essentially a la nina/E QBO look. As far as it being "dulled", it is like that for a reason. I don't see much support for exotically warm DJFM departures in the mid atl and NE....maybe the SE. I guess DJF maybe a bit easier to get a warmer composite since we both expect March to be cold. That maybe part of the reason why your map is +3 or greater and mine is +3 and under.

What a beautiful song Steve. Agreed. The biggest difference between me from my mid 30s ownward and the younger version is that I have the perspective not to take every th ing and everyone for granted. I've learned gratitude after everything that I've been through and I hit the lottery to be where I am today.

I dread that.

It's easier to be that meticulous when your kids are just about grown up.

23.4 for the low here.

What it is, is prerry clear...

I do it monthly

Yes. Good catch....fixed.

I don't agree with everything. Deal with it- Sincerely, Best regards, RS

I have tried to make it a bit less cumbersome over the past couple of years by just linking the basics for people who want to learn/refresh...its long enough as it is. A change I made this year was to really put more time into honing the monthly composites to better reflect my portrayal of the seasonal progression/evolution. In the past, they were too broadbrushed and didn't reflect my thoughts 100%, and I would have to communicate that in print. I was not nearly as rigid with respect to my analog composite seasons this year, especially with la nina being basin wide, mixed type. There are some SHITTY years in the composite at appropriate junctures, and likewise some epic ones at certain times. The weighting is applied to augment the strongest analogs. The composites this year really reflect my thoughts well. That was a weakness before. Enjoy guys.

Disagree

Not worried about it.

In like a lion, out like a lion. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/11/outlook-2021-2022-in-like-lion-out-like.html

Maybe not your analogs...

Agreed.

I agree with Euro strongly.

That looks a little blocker than 2007-2008, so I feel good about that image.

I'll take that and run.

Lol One of us is tragically wrong regarding timing. My work is done...will post later.