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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    You probably will get something...maybe its 2" instead of 4" up here...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it hard to believe we don't score at least some front enders over the first half of this month...it may not be pretty, but there should snow.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why am I seeing these stupid posts about strong la nina? If its dry, it will because of the very negative PDO, but la nina in terms of ONI is weak and it will be lucky to peak moderate.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get your point, but mine is that climate change has dictated that is how snowfall is distributed now. You can point out a couple of select snowfalls in a specific quadrant of the region 40 years ago, but the reality is that snowfall is being distributed over larger events and fewer middling ordeals.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it is lost for a select few...most make the joke.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its been like the 80s with respect to seasonal totals, but we are still getting larger dumps....like Feb 1, 2021, and Dec 2019. Ironically enough considering your pun, its the 3-6" ers that are fewer and farther between.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've already had the 80's....one season of at or above climo seasonal snowfall over 3/4 of a decade.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Are the ensembles more supportive?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The whole point of starting a thread for a threat inside of 5 days is to distinguish the increasing volume of traffic relating to it from the main thread, not to imply that the storm is imminent or a lock. I think that point is lost on a few of us.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    He was pessimistic last year, too....then the whole season proceeded to LBSW right into his backyard lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. I recall reading lately that December has warmed the most during the past few decades. I will def sell +4F in this area for December. We will see what happens.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks Larry, but I was not alone by a long shot...many others, including @raindancewx never thought this event was that impressive at the surface. It is very well coupled with atmosphere, though. We will see...it still has a shot to sneak into moderate...it will be close, which was my thought all along (-.09 to -1.1 NDJ peak ONI).
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    We will see what actually verifies in December. Not really into grading my outlooks based upon CFS progs, but rather reality verification. I had normal to slightly below in Dec, so CFS comes in about +2. Recent long range guidance has been running warm around here of late.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not in any one spot within SNE.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It can, but rare...like norluns.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a valid concern for everyone...just be on the look out for the inverter trough like crap because that will be the kiss of death that something like that will probably take place. There will be several posters lurking around the thread from that point forward playing "pin the tail on the delusion", but don't be one of them. Get out, and if you're pleasantly suprised, great.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    9/10 times the inverted crap is an intermediary, provisional solution as guidance reconciles previously robust solutions with the reality that nothing is going to really happen.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. Bingo...as soon as Will started talking about "energy hanging back", I was out.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I highly doubt both work out, but one has a good shot.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Second week of December fits my timeline for the month...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What you need to realize about the 2007-2008 season is that there was a PV displacement on February 22, 2008. Here is what evolved that spring I anticipate a major disruption of the polar vortex about 1-4 weeks earlier this year, so you do the math.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    In outlook we trust.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro has interesting event in the extended. See if it warrants a blog when I subscribe later this week.....you know, for a reaction (just for you @Torch Tiger)
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    SWFE
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