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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, sorry. ACE is just Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of the energy emitted by tropical systems. Solar just refers to current position in the solar cycle...ie, we are currently ascending into solar cycle 25, so you want to consider other seasons that were also ascending. This will all be explained.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove is all in on a -AO/NAO.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember the pattern during the fall of 2006 was awesome, then you came out with your infamous "warmest winter on record" thread, and sure enough, it went to shit.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why la nina is usually front loaded.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great work and presentation, as always. I was a bit surprised to see your final map with +5+ on the east coast because it didn't appear that warm in the aggregate.....but you did say "locally". Good luck with it.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark

    :blink:

  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully we can tear the 'ole Naval Air Station down in South Weymouth.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully it stays east of me. Maine can keep the power disruptions.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had about normal snow that season, though it was rather mild. It was a weaker la nina and more of a modoki.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    @512highWhat are you confused about?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have it as one of my more heavily weighted temp analogs.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No. I have my analog composites, but I'll begin writing it up before month's end.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The composite is a list of cold ENSO seasons that I have deemed as quality June through September national temp anomaly matches to this year...I have weighted a few more heavily than the others. You'll see shortly after Halloweenie, and if it doesn't make sense then, I'll answer all questions. I also have one for precip, which is more difficult IMHO, ACE and solar considerations.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    There should be plenty of questions before I issue the outlook. I just like to leave something to the imagination...not only that, it allows me to fine tune the composite if need be. FWIW, I made that composite early in September and haven't had to tweak it yet. Precip map I have.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't planning on revealing until my outlook. You'll see in a few weeks.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    My concurrent analogs turned out decent for September.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    My issue is that you don't cite my forecasts as incorrect, you cite random posts that I have made in casual conversation. My forecasts are on my blog, which you have admitted you don't read. A normal person doesn't become so oppositional and critical of forecast content that they do not read. If you catch me lying about my blog results, by all means...let me know.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even with respect to synoptic patterns, we often see transitions initially rushed. But I think this one will be on its way out rather quickly this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    61.7 off of a low of 37.2.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, lets aim for 12/10.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully Garth can do the 10th. I think that is about as close to the holidays as most would want to make this.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am fine with a primary into the OV.
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