40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I love how winter is over "Morch" first, but there will still be plenty of hot and humid weather to go 3.5 months from now, which brings us to nearly October.
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Maybe sensible weather wise....but off the top of my head, I would toss out 1957-1958, 1976-1977 (obviously modified), 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2014-2015 (obviously not 100" in 30 days).
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I've been saying I have been due for something approaching normal or above snowfall 5 years running now and it hasn't happened lol.
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Its seems tongue and check, but its honestly not....I'm dead serious. There is going to be a nice el nino (probably modoki) either this season or next.
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The path of least resistance is to scoff while offering an assortment of weenie and confused emojies, but take a look at el nino seasons coming off of 3 year plus cool ENSO cycles...its pretty iron clad. If this year ends up an el nino, then it could be this year.
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I am going to go on record right now.....you guys heard it here first, but the winter of 2023-2024 is going to crush it. Jury still out on this season...it could go either way, but take '23-'24 to the bank.
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Under the cover of dark?
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What I mean by extreme is all-time type record heat. I think we all understand that intense cold and heat can still occur in March and September, respectively, but the ceiling (floor) is not as extreme as July (January).
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I have no use for the extreme cold, as its miserable....even involving storms.... it often leads to CJs.
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That's fine, at least I know the end is in sight by that point.
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Still not as intense because there is a higher starting point owed to increased solar irradiance, but yea.....you lose the "warm bum in car" insolation.
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March is a snowier month than December, on average.
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Yea, I said heat....humidity, sure....seasonal lag. Just like March can have a ton of snow, but intense and persistent cold is harder to come by.
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Yea, this has been the perfect warm season, so far...if they were all like this, then I wouldn't mind it as much.
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Yea, September heat is like March cold.....yea, you can get it, but its intensity and residence time is reduced by the changing sun angle.
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I like what I see, so far....getting 2000, 2009 kind of vibes this warm season. Least mother nature can do for me after these past several butt-plug winters. Two weeks from today days begin drifting back to the shorted end of the spectrum, and the sun begins to fade...tic, tock...each day in this pattern burns more of solar max.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Funny to see 2000 show up as a viable subsurface analog, as its one of three triple dip la nina seasons, too. Yea, I would take any one of December 2000, 2004 and 2007. -
The ocean is larger variance....yea, they get porked more, but you will never see a storm where you are the magnitude of what the cape saw in Jan 2005. Nor will I.
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Yea, well I said "increasingly possible". I get that the climate is changing, but 70 years of data isn't worthless...
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Yea, no argument there.
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Yes. Global warming is manifesting most with respect to less extreme daily mins.
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I put it less considering it hasn't happened in at least 70 years, but its increasingly possible...sure.
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The Hadley Heroes also seem to forget that the majority of warming is occurring with respect to daily mins. The degree of warming during the solar max, while certainly both palpable and measurable, is not nearly as drastic.
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I figured you would chime in with some rhetoric about cannibalistic Hadley Cells ruling the world, but like I said, I'll bet against 6 consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons IMBY and very likely win that bet. Its not entirely regional, either, which makes the global warming attribution perilous at best....the region as a whole has done better than my area.
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Nah...I can hang. I figure maybe one more subpar season at most, before things begin to turn around. This season would be 5 consecutive stinkers, but I can't see 6.
