40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Won't go too OT, but I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to technological gains for society as whole because its become a conduit for impulsivity and an unhealthy proclivity towards instant gratification. This is corrosive for both cognitive and social skills.
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One of these days we are gonna see viral footage of the chaserdude just hanging from the porch of that little cabin in Bay St Louis lol
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A warmer climate alters everything; it has a radius of impact that effects a myriad of factors that reverberates throughout the entire globe. Its not a linear conception.
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People automatically assume a warmer world means more tropical issues....yes, there is a higher ceiling, but that ceiling will not always be reached. Always remember that the earth is all about balance and while a warmer world means more latent energy from which to tap, there are also other potential barriers to tapping said energy to the maximum extent, such as what you referred to RE the HC, and also potentially increased wind shear due to more development downstream in the Pacific.
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Shocker
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Yea, that is how I interpret things...wall-to-wall sultry this week, but this weekend starts a bit of a regime change. Not to say summer is over by any stretch, but these respites should grow longer and more frequent moving forward.
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It irks me how when me have a moribund tropical season like this, you don't hear a word out of the GW talking heads on the newscasts....but once we get a major LF, they will be right back on it. Don't get me wrong, I don't dispute it, before Tip violates me with the butt-end of his Hadley Cell.....but you know the type that like to use every natural disaster as a an indicator of climate change and just exaggerate the hell out of it.
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Also, I will take this pattern now, rather than winter....all day, every day.
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Its brutal, but I take solace in considering it like a deposit in the weather karma bank.....you know this shit evens out over time, so we will get ours eventually....kind of the opposite of a 2015 like stretch when people like scooter are posting about how you should enjoy it because like will suck for decades to come.
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Even they must be bored to tears and checked of after these past several months....most boring year in weather history around here.
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I still below 1/2" on the month.....its like a continuation of the winter pattern.
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Just .22" IMBY yesterday....Stein lives.
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What is obnoxious if the recent flip in climo periods....I like how the temp and precip maps give you the option on which climo period you use....I like using the large 1951-2010 option because it provides an expansive and consistent baseline. But the H5 plots have all shifted to 1991-2020 and there is no option to change it. I hate that.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, agree RE December.....but we'll see. -
Yes, but still a central player....I think it was always a fool's errand to focus efforts on any single predictor, anyway. Nothing operates in a vacuum.
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2010-2011 was a great ENSO analog last year, but this year, not so much. I agree NAO will average positive overall.
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Complete agreement. Also, just starting to look in depth....this is a basin wide event with a westward lean...I would group this in the hybrid-basin wide bin and given the state of the subsurface, I do not see this going full tilt modoki.
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Keep in mind that the majority of the easterly winds being west of 150W is primarily going to warm the western zones, since the subsurface is warm out there......its really just a narrow sliver within 3.4, right around 130-155W that we have the nexus of easterly winds and cool subsurface.
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Blue is easterly on that map, correct?
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Its still early and I reserve the right to change my mind between now and issuance in early Novie, but right now I would say anywhere from -0.9 to -1.1, like last season, but a much faster demise.
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I am going to write up why I feel we are seeing this disparity amongst guidance because I think that there is a reason that dynamical guidance is weaker.
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Most of the subsurface cool anomalies are located under the eastern regions, which is actually pretty warm right now.
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I agree. I'm not saying that I would rip and read its forecast, but I wouldn't entirely discount it, either.....I would blend it with some of the other guidance. Its not alone in doing this....its just the most extreme. Check out the difference between the dynamical guidance and statistical guidance....I think that is illuminating.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The potential implication would be a season that deviates from your prototypical "la nina" winter. -
I also think a lot of folks are overestimating ENSO this season....this thing is going to begin going in the other direction sooner than consensus IMHO.
