40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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@ORH_wxman, do you have a link for the latest version of this Hovmoller?
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Yea, I have never understood the obsession with non-ENSO ssts....its relatively trivial.
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Toting the swampiest ass that has ever swamped....just leaving trails like a snail everywhere.
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Its not a done deal until the house considers it.
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He is, but if you read his work, it specifies that the +5ish warmth will be localized. His actual analog composite isn't that warm....the localized +5 crap was the hand drawn map.
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snowman's protégé
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DM 2020-2021 was just about normal...a bit above NNE. DM 2017-2018 was normal to slightly below.
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31.5 again last night....visible frost...already been several.
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Doubt that.
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I just mean that the second half was lame. Obviously the ones that hang on well into January are the real winners. I think the key is get a PNA to take a handoff from the NAO, and/or a combo of really favorable EPO ridge/good timing.
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1984 is another notable exception...
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Most la nina seasons do...even 2010-2011 did. Same with 2008-2009. The 1996, 2001 and 2018's are tough to come by.
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I would happily sign up for that winter where I am...probably pulled like 85" with a near 30" pack in December.
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Part of me is glad you're not god, yet part of me wants you anointed ASAP. Hopefully this trend keeps up into winter, like Will said. You would think that something has to give with all of the water vapor in the air/very warm hemispheric SSTs coupled with how dry it was this past summer. There is so much latent energy both at the surface and in the atmosphere; lets light some damn matches-
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He is very vague in his seasonal pieces....he just lays the pieces out and hedges, but never really issues a forecast.
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Yea, LC is all about the STJ this year.
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Honestly, after following him over the course of the past several years, he has been the best and its not close.
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Analogs a great tool, but at the end of the day, a forecaster's intuition and instinct is often just as good with respect to seasonal forecasting.
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Cosgrove is full steam ahead on your idea....active like '92-'93, '93-'94. My analogs keep it fairly dry, but I'm not sure I buy that due to all of the water vapor after that volcano.
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You would like to think that a third consecutive crack at la nina will finally pay dividends here on the NH border, but at this point, who knows...
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It was pretty historic up through Boston ....2' events in Boston proper do not grow on trees.
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At least that arid stretch seems to be over.
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There are the two key take aways.
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People have arguments in each direction, like with everything else in weather.
