40/70 Benchmark

I feel better about it not being a ratter there.

I remember seeing a young Cantore and his afro sitting in the forecast office....back before his field days.

They happen, just not this year...which is why we drought, regionally.

Relative bullet dodged in both instances...Katrina really weakened and veered east, as it ended up a glorified N GOM collapser. Andrew just whiffed Miami to the south.

Well, it isn't like it was a uniform soaker, either.

While I don't think its going to be a banner year, nothing I see implies misery for the Mid Atlantic in terms of snowfall, either. Regardless of what the arctic domain does, the Pacific is going to provide some windows of opportunity. I mean, its within the realm of plausibility, but I wouldn't go plunging into the Potomac quite yet...its not awful.

You have me beat

Not much to track, so we reminisce.... The wee hours of this morning represent the 30th anniversary of the first meteorological event that I ever pulled an all-nighter for in the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in south Florida. Even as an 11 year old, I couldn't fathom the scenes of destruction that came out of there and it took me decades to comprehend the gravity of what would have taken place had that storm made landfall about a mere 10 mi to the north, in downtown Miami. It will happen at some point.

Interesting to see 2020-2021 and 1970-1971 show up on Raindance's best match list, after I concluded today's blog post by highlighting those two years as the only basin-wide, moderate la nina seasons...I also like that they had a fairly high MEI, especially the former. One of the most gratifying aspects of seasonal forecasting is seeing two forecasters arrive at similar conclusions through different methodologies....almost akin to ensembles consensus, with the forcecaster of course being the ensemble member, and the methodology being the perturbation to initial conditions. I think that is the holy grail for forecast confidence. Should be a bit more festive this December.

.04" today after .22" yesterday.... .54" on the month....we drought.

I bought one last January...seems lethally accurate.

I pray.

Some of my latest thoughts on ENSO and where it may be headed. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/08/enso-intensity-and-structure-coming.html

Thanks, but useless for me since I need it for a several seasons within a composite that are not in consecutive order.

Oh, you are on the ECMWF site.....Copernicus only goes to NDJ.

My fall theme has been that Pacific is going to better than advertised by consensus.

Looks to me like a lot of mixed precip events, but pretty active.

How did you get DJF? I only see out to NDJ...

NDJ looks like and EPO/PNA orgy....probably connected to how quickly it kills la nina.

I just use percent to illustrate how far actual seasonal snowfall is from my forecast range.

I wanted to update my east-based la nina composite to add last season, but now using the 1991-2020 period makes it look washed out because some of the areas of higher heights are muted, and it enhances cooler areas. I don't know why they don't give you the option of selecting climo period like the temp/precip charts.

I think its both...technology has made it more readily apparent, and an overreliance upon said technology is exacerbating the issue.

Only so many promos for Typhoon Haiyan jackshacks in the Philippines on the next episode of Hurricane Man.

I saw a great post on FB from a group I am in that highlighted that semi permanent ULL that has become a fixture over the NE ATL this season...it keeps feeding dry air and SAL down that channel of cooler SSTs to the SW, into the MDR west of Africa. This creates a narrow window for development because they need to strong/resilient enough to survive that hostile e Atl envt, while remaining weak enough to not be veered towards the N ATL graveyard.