40/70 Benchmark

Man, to be still 80 IMBY, which radiates fairly proficiently, past midnight is impressive. 85 KLWM at 1230am.

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

99 should do it IMBY.

96

Already up to 93 here at ground zero.

La nina will be weak for winter, regardless of whether or not a brief moderate peak is achieved this fall. Yea, neg IOD is linked to la nina, but it's also linked to modoki el nino, which we are likely to see next year.

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

It also makes sense that some of the la nina's that were kind of irregular from traditional la nina climo, such as 1995-1996 with the hyper active STJ and 2000-2001 with the huge ending, did not induce a concomitant IOD response, thus why the MJO likely strayed from traditional la nina favored phases.

"One may note that the El Niño in mode 2 evolves from the peak phase of La Niña and the Indian Ocean experiences a decaying process of basinwide cooling". Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that we usually have a modoki following a prolonged stretch of la nina.

Actually, you are right....the IOD-ENSO link doesn't apply for year long la nina events...only ones that have their initial onset during the spring.

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002). View Full Size Fig. 1. (a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1. Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1 From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO. The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

Yea, kind of tough to hang your hat on, but...

Yea, it probably won't be as hot at this summer apex flex has been, but above normal, nometheless.

2000-2001 is pretty deceiving because while it was not particularly snowy along the northeast coast, just inland it was an absolutely insane season...talking 4-5' March depths in the Monadnocks of SW NH. Caveat being I don't think the ACE will end up as high as it did that year...

Check out my P&C for Sunday...lol Sunday A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. About as hot as it ever gets around these parts....at least there looks to be a breeze.

I think the first half of August will average pretty toasty before we step down a bit...

How do you figure?

I'm actually getting the 7/11 split with a storm popping over KLWM, just to my south.

Just missed the T storms to my north, but clouded up and got windy, which dropped the temp from the high of 94.8 down to 81. Sun poking back out and temp up to 82.2

Intensity is a foregone conclusion...going to begin to hone in on structure during August. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/07/confidence-grows-for-weak-la-nina.html

Sometimes it is...the exact relationship between the two is a bit of a wild card.

Anyway, la nina will definitely have an impact...not saying it won't. I actually don't mind 1975-1976 as a potential analog.....

Independent of la nina? We had already been two plus years deep into la nina.... The early portion of winter, which would act to pin forcing over the west pacific...that buttresses the idea of a fast start.