40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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He is very vague in his seasonal pieces....he just lays the pieces out and hedges, but never really issues a forecast.
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Yea, LC is all about the STJ this year.
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Honestly, after following him over the course of the past several years, he has been the best and its not close.
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Analogs a great tool, but at the end of the day, a forecaster's intuition and instinct is often just as good with respect to seasonal forecasting.
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Cosgrove is full steam ahead on your idea....active like '92-'93, '93-'94. My analogs keep it fairly dry, but I'm not sure I buy that due to all of the water vapor after that volcano.
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You would like to think that a third consecutive crack at la nina will finally pay dividends here on the NH border, but at this point, who knows...
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It was pretty historic up through Boston ....2' events in Boston proper do not grow on trees.
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At least that arid stretch seems to be over.
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There are the two key take aways.
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People have arguments in each direction, like with everything else in weather.
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At the end of the day, people are going to point to CC regardless of whether its boring, or it isn't.
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This has got to be one of the lamest weather years that I have lived through. 9 months and counting of absolute bore, save for Ian, and the one signature event 9 months ago still bent me over. My god, you have to go back to the previous cane season outside of that.
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2019 was an odd one...storm track was waaaaaay north...almost more like a la nina. It even sucked here.
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Moderate are better south of NYC......less of a STJ and more N stream with weak ones.
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I can't imagine how sickening it is to be just NW of a death band and get like 8" of sand, while 10mi se gets 3' of powder. Thankfully, that has never happened to me, but I have had the same sensible result a couple of times due to subby slots....12/05/2003 takes the cake, with 12" here, 28" in Woburn (8mi) and 38" in Peabody (10-12mi). PDII a close second with 12" and like 2'+ in Woburn. Last January was probably 3rd.
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Same here....31.5
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Well, I don't include non-ENSO SST analogs when I do the seasonal, so that is a testament to how much I value it. I'm not saying it alters the pattern, but I think it can help to re enforce it or maybe slow the onset of a disparate regime.
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Its overhyped, but there is somewhat of a feedback after a certain point.
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I'll def see what I can do for Ginxy.
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1995 is one of my favorite years....man, that cane season followed by the best winter ever. I know most were fish, but at 14 years old, I just tracked those things all summer long. It was a great escape for an adolescent with social struggles.
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LOL We all have our demons, John. I probably lead the pack.
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It's not a huge deal, but when looking for best matches, it looks more like a 70-71, 2010-2011 basin wide deal, as opposed to a 99-00 or 07-08. Little nuances like that can be significant since the range of outcomes is so high amongst basin wide events.
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Oh, really? Hmm...I hadn't noticed.
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I commuted...most of my classes were on south campus. 2004-2008.
