40/70 Benchmark

Watching the Pats' offense is like watching the tropics this year.

Grab a 40oz and go

It looks just like you...all that's missing is a Hartford Wolfpack hoodie

Why does it look like @weatherwizis on the sideline coaching the Dolphins?

Not necessarily.

I think it will be generally mild through most of October, but as we have been acknowledging, that doesn't mean 90.

Oh, NHEM, maybe.....I was thinking ATL.

I don't think ACE has been lower recently....without the numbers in front of me, so maybe I am speaking out of my rear, but I don't believe that to be the case. It's been a pretty damn active 25 years or so. The talk about attributing climate change to one very quiet season is absurd...I mean, theoretically speaking...yes, viable theory..but it's one year. I love how when we get crushed with snow, we await regression like clockwork, but when the 150+ ACE season assembly line finally takes a breather, it must be climate change...what happened to simple regression? Does Mr. Regression not like the tropics? Lol

There are circles of people who attribute everything and anything at all to climate change...we finally have one season that fails to meet hyper activity criteria, and out come the conspiracy theories about mother nature. Holy $hit, stab my eyes out with a fork and Hadley me to death.

Max would drown out the effect of climate change a bit...good alternative if you dnt want to use the 1951-2010 climo set.

Right...just saying, is it better to use temps, or daily maxes...I have traditionally used temps...

Or temp anomalies vs daily max temp anomalies...

I was well down into the 40s at least 3 nights this past week.

Can't argue with that.

A hot pattern in July and August is misery, but a hot September and October is just pleasant.

I get that its warm, but I'm sorry...mid September "heat" is in no way, shape or form as uncomfortable as it was just a month ago....the sun just doesn't have the same punch and it's very noticeable. I can totally deal with this.

The main reason we even look at forcing is to illustrate a how disparate types of ENSO manifest around the hemisphere, so I really don't see the benefit of using a climo period and/or variable that attenuates said difference. It defeats the purpose. If the forcing was actually changing, then that is one thing...but we know from the H5 plots that it is not.

I have updated all of my la nina H5 and SST composites to reflect the 1951-2010 climo period. I ended up leaving the VP composites alone, which are all 1981-2010, save for east based (1991-2020). I had to update the east-based composite to include last season, so that meant 1981-2010 was no longer an option. I like how the VP reflects forcing a bit better than OLR, and VP is not an option of the climo period converter maps, unfortunately. I don't think heterogeneous climo periods for something like forcing is a huge deal.

Tracking the Tropical Paint Dry.....should edit the thread.

Except that's his baseline.

The elevated valleys are where its at....the areas around 1000' within a 1500' ridge.

LOL If they didn't know the date of the traffic nightmare storm of 2007, then it was no dice.

Absolutely. Have said the same thing myself.

Absolutely. I do not at all dispute the importance of math. I salute those those can do it at a high level....no sarcasm intended.

I do appreciate the value of mathematics because it does provide a superior understanding of the foundational physical processes at play, but I also agree that there are plenty of good forecasters that were never exposed to Calculus VI.