40/70 Benchmark

Its a passive aggressive jab. But I'm not sure I would say they are usually dry....warm, sure.

Something has to give soon, whether its this year or not...but dating back to 1956, my worst 5 year stretch is 87-88 through 91-92, when I averaged 38.5"....this stretch from 18-19 through 22-23 I have averaged 45.1". But I have never had six consecutive seasons of well below average snowfall dating back to 1956....1992-1993 ended that drought with 97.3". On the front side of that stretch was 86-87 with 77.7"....I could envision something like that as the ceiling next year if its basinwide. But even if it isn't....the juggernaut east-based events have a tendency to deliver one heavy hitter.....I had 60.2" in 82-83. If we get one more terd out here, I would have to imagine 24-25 ends it.

Its tough to doubt raindance's idea of an el nino looking pretty much like the last 3 la nina events given the -PDO....but I highly doubt that snowfall will be as anemic as it was this past season....just about impossible in the mid atlantic and coastal SNE.

I never, ever would have guessed....

Right. As much as I love that season, it won't be on my short list. It was actually east based, but so weak it didn't really matter.

Hey, looks like a got the smoke jack

36.5

Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive

I think we can toss 1976-1977 based on the PDO....was pretty positive that year.

Got my first round of mowing in on Saturday...gorgeous wknd.

Again...I have no issue with a neutral to negative PDO ....but just not sure a top 5 el nino in terms of intensity, or extremely eastern biased ordeal is a certainty.

JMA looks like the CANSIPS...mod-strong, basin wide ordeal with high latitude blocking and -PDO

If its warm, its warm...oh well, but we will have a better chance of a large scale event than this past season...obviously Jan 2016 and the Megalopolis system...but even 12/23/97 produce 8" in an hour not too far from me.

Well, I have a sneaking suspicion that if the winter panels were more reminiscent of a super-strength, canonical el nino, then you wouldn't have ignored them.

The CANSIPS has a wintry pattern for the east.

Agree.

Canadian actually looks pretty good to me at H5.....good amount of EPO and NAO blocking, though I don't place much stock in seasonal guidance at this range with respect to the polar domain. The H5 representation does support what I was saying about it being more of a basin-wide with a central focus look....slight east bias. But its very tough to get this look with a strong, east-based canonical el nino.

I think the Candian is a bit more central based than a '72, '91 and '97 composite.....not to mention I still not sure that it will end up as strong as that composite would suggest. I have no issue with the PDO parallels....

I'm still wrapping up my recap and grading of last season and haven't really looked at much yet, but just based on what raindance has contributed, I am inclined to agree.

I think we can all agree the Pacific not being entirely hostile is more important...the NAO just affords a bit of margin for error.

Big +NAO signal, even though it isn't exactly balmy...snowfall is great in the east unless el nino goes Berserk.

This is the thing...its a catch 22. It needs to migrate west in order for el nino to flourish......but if you want a mild winter, then its needs to thread the needle in order to trigger el nino sufficiently, while relegating the resultant forcing to the eastern regions. Very possible, but we just don't know that yet.