40/70 Benchmark

You should def. get caught up on the thread because we just discussed that article for like 3 pages lol

I've said this before, but believe it or not....there is a great deal of commonalty between writing clinical formulations and seasonal outlooks. They each work into my strengths of integrating/synthesizing data. I like being able to refine and formulate my own perspective form info...I hate the way math "worm holes" you in to one precise solution lol

Totally me.....I can't count how many times I was asked, or it was suggested that I should pursue weather...my answer was always the same; I can't do the math. Buts its okay....the events of my life unfolded in such a manner that I think I provide tremendous value as a LICSW/therapist, and the meteorology is one of my key outlets. It works.

To be fair, I honestly couldn't lol The funny part is that math and science are not my thing....I am SO mathematically deficient...can hardly do algebra. But I am very articulate and have a way of integrating and synthesizing info, which coupled with an immense passion for snow fuels a very meticulous (think OCD) method of research.

Yow know who he reminds me of? You remember Jim Hughes on Eastern? I know @ORH_wxman will remember him. The guy knew his stuff and offered valuable insight with respect to the solar implications of meteorology, but the dude just turned people off...always craving credit and accusing people of not "recognizing him" etc...you'd try to engage him about some frontier way of using the sun to forecast, and he'd literally be like "I remember when I tried to bring that up on Eastern like 10 years ago, and no one listened". Such an edge to him....Raindance kind of me reminds of him. So much valuable insight that essentially falls on deaf ears because his attitude, tone and demeanor just turns people off. One correlation he apparently hasn't studied yet is social aptitude and success. Hughes is till on Twitter, BTW....and you can hear echoes within each of his Tweet threads.

I honestly didn't expect that...wow. lol

What's funny is that because I respect him as a forecaster, I will ask his opinion on certain issues, and he will just completely blow it off and carry on commenting below like the post didn't exist. I have also cited him several different times as one of my "must reads" and one of the more talented seasonal forecasters that I know of, but that one passing kernel of sarcasm is what he chooses to acknowledge and then attack/essentially accuse me of plagiarizing the work of other forecasters. I mean, this field is driven by PEER REVIEWED research for a reason....the free and open exchange of ideas is what drives the science, and is an entirely different concept from presenting the work of others as your own. No one accused him of not coming up with his own ideas when he cited the article on the release of water vapor into the atmosphere from volcanoes lol. Jesus, its how we learn, but apparently he was born with all of this immense meteorological insight.

Well, that struck a nerve..it was just a joke. I understand that arrogant and condescending people like you never solicit feedback and exchange ideas with others (or at least won't admit to it), but the reality is that most people do...its a wonderful way to facilitate growth and advance the field. I don't know everything and yes, there are other people with great ideas, like yourself, that add value to my efforts. Always cited, of course. I don't steal anything or take credit for the work of others. Perhaps you should take a break from using others as a conduit for the incessant stroking of your ego and and actually open your mind; you'll be a better forecaster for it.

It seems as though there does exist a correlation of of some sort, but causation is another ball game. I don't think that is prohibitive from using it as a seasonal outlook tool because we see random correlations used quite frequently....raindance is always mentioning how if (insert random occurrence around the globe) happens, then it means a cold February in Albuquerque.

Depends on the track, too because that influences wind direction. If we do have a negative NAO, there can be decent snows relatively close to the coast because the wind will not be due east.

Its good to be indiscriminate, I guess...

This also has support from a lot of the seasonals, as well as analogs.

@ORH_wxman@CoastalWx What are your thoughts on the idea that SH strat cooling could be linked to NH strat warming? https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ There isn't any peer reviewed material backing it, but it makes sense to me due to the element of balance at play.....we see this all of the time in the tropics.....IE areas of lift at the surface meaning descent above, as well as down stream in longitude and latitude. This would fit right in with the proclivity for earth to inexorably strive for that elusive balance that it will never achieve. I think it could act to accentuate early season la nina climo.

He didn't say that. He implied that the warmer SSTs may lead to a stormier pattern. That would be interesting if the early season NAO works out....especially just back from the coast and at higher elevations.

Seems to line up pretty well with VP maps.

Not very constricted, and pretty elongated.....1991-2020 climo really accentuates lower heights, as well. Here is a different vantage point

I actually meant during this past SH winter, which would be June through August.

1996 is perhaps the strongest December analog IMO....it was a second year cool ENSO. The sequence concept is just an add-on IMO...its not a deal breaker if you think an analog has value. Do you have any peer reviewed research linking SH cooling to NH warming, or is that your cursory postulation? It does make sense....the earth loves to balance, and that is the very essence of ENSO, which is why its so self-destructive.

Is this data set above years in which there was a major SH eruption? What about the one below? Are these just seasons that you personally feel are good analogs?

Man, snowman needs to move south lol

This works right in with basin wide/modoki nina climo, which is for the most wintery part of the season to be in December before going to crap later.

Paul, I don't see a velocity potential option on this like the other one.....I hate that, as I use it to show ENSO forcing. I guess OLR would be the closest proxy to that of the available option with this tool.... @CoastalWxis OLR pretty much akin to .2101 sigma VP?

Did the SH have a very strong, and constricted PV this past winter?

I'm sure that was next on @snowman19's list of tweets to quote. For real, though....I am seeing a real theme for negative NAO on the seasonal guidance, especially early on. Last season, the seasonals all had +NAO, which worked out.

Yea, like I said...its not going to be strong. I'll eat that guy's shorts if it does. You guys have a shot this year...don't listen to the doom and gloom.