40/70 Benchmark

Probably not the CF potential of Feb '78, but as far as intensity of the low and excessive snowfall.

Thanks, raindance.

Wife just called me to tell me that my 3 yr old daughter is raging..."mummy, where did the snow go!" I told her, "don't worry, daddy will put it back in time for Xmas" Yea, if this finds a way to fail, then I quit.

This has like Feb 1978, Feb 2013 potential.

Yea, we aren't going to get 533 consecutive flawless phases.

Watch.

This is going to be a CJ jack....watch. We will all get it good, though

Severe Winter Storm Likely Around of Just Prior to Christmas Eve Track to be Determined But Confidence High Relative to Long Lead Time Ideally, in order to maximize potential for major east coast cyclogenesis, what is more important than simply having negative modes of the EPO, NAO, AO and positive PNA is having increased modularity. In other words, the idea that the teleconnections are changing is even more important than what particular mode that they are because the key is to have mass fields in flux, which is precisely what is emphatically being advertised for the period leading up to the Christmas holiday. Thus the advertised mid season mayhem maybe set to begin as we near the final week of 2022. Teleconnector Convergence Teleconnection is a term employed in the weather bussiness to denote a casual connection or correlation between meteorological or other environnmental phenomena that occur over an expansive geographical area. Eastern Mass Weather often refers to these phenomena as part of the intricate cycle of land, sea and air that the earth uses as a means by which to incessantly strive to maintain an elusive state of equilibrium that will never be established. It is the mission of the earth in its truest essence to harness the surplus of solar heat focused near the equator, and in so doing utilize the vast array of oscillations and telcconnections as a vehicle for the redistribution of said heat poleward. Please refer here and here a more detailed and exhaustive tutorial on the various oscillations and the role that they play on a global scale, however, they will be explored through a medium range forecasting lens for the purpose of this writing. "Archambault Events" Research conducted by Heather Archambault et al. (2007) concluded that there exists a statistically significant correlation between large precipitation events in the northeastern US during the cool season, which encompasses the period November through April, and exaggerated positive and negative modes of the PNA and NAO, respectively. More specifically, heavy bouts of winter time precipitation occur more frequently when the PNA is +2 SDs of higher, and the NAO +2 SDs or lower. This is due to the fact that upper air systems, or shortwaves, careening down the east side of a stout PNA ridge are able to dig deeper at the base of the trough since they are beginning at a higher latitude. We would advise being mindful of our garden hose analogy here, and the fact that for every action in the atmosphere, there is an equal, and opposite, more stochastic reaction. The higher the ridge, the deeper the trough. Stronger Western Ridge Equates to Deeper Easter Trough/More Significant Storm This is a high stakes scenario because since PNA is expected to be on the rise and cross into the positive mode during the lead up to Christmas, higher heights out west will tend to promote more phasing and the more proficient delivery of cold downstream on the east coast. This why we are seeing a powerful, phased system on much of the guidance. It is also likely to be a slow-moving storm because it will tend to slow as it rounds the base of the trough, and its continued eastward progression would then be met with resistance from the higher north atlantic heights inherent of the negative mode of the NAO, which also means that the cold air can not exit prior to the arrival of the system as it will this Friday. Blocking North Atlantic High Slows Exit of Storm Note the agreement on this general scenario amongst the various ensemble suites for the evening leading into Christmas Eve: European Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Canadien Ensemble Mean: It is the aforementioned Archambault research that "precipitated" the promulgation of the term "Archambault event" throughout meteorological circles to describe a large precipitation event during highly anomalous +PNA/-NAO regimes. In this particular context that the mode of the oscillation is paramount for identifying intervals of heightened storm risk. However, the previously cited importance of modularity and mass flux in the development of major storm development has prompted Eastern Mass Weather to expound upon this research in an effort to identify said modularity as having perhaps an even more of a profound proclivity to foster an environment ripe for the development of major east coast winter storms. Dynamic vs Static Mass Fields The fact that heights are elevating across the western US as we transition from an RNA to PNA regime, coupled with the maturation and subsequent slow attenuation of the high latitude blocking node across the polar domain represents a great deal of motion among mass fields This refers to the fact that because oscillations such as the PNA, NAO, and AO being in a state of flux, air masses will be colliding as one cedes ground to the other. This is what Eastern Mass Weather refers to as a "dynamic" atmospheric regime, in which, some, not necessarily all, of the oscillations are in a heightened state of modularity. This simply means that they are either growing more positive or more negative. It is these phase change events that are cultivated within an environment rife with baroclincity and abundant avenues for moisture transport via the release of heat and/or isentropic lift. It is this heightened state of modularity that is more crucial to the genesis of heavy precipitation events than is the need for a given oscillation to be firmly fixed in an anonymously high or low mode. Dynamic teleconnector convergence is more crucial to the development of major east coast winter storms than is static teleconnector convergence, and this is precisely what is currently modeled for the major North American teleconnections approximately one week from today. The evolution of the PNA ridge in guidance over the next several days will be crucial, as faster ascent and building to the west will likely mean a more proficient phasing of the downstream eastern energy...ie the PV love over southeastern Canada with the developing coastal low. Stay tuned over the course of the next week due to potential travel ramifications for the upcoming holiday week. While First Call will not be issued until around Tuesday, it is safe to say that certainly all air travel, and preferably ground travel, be rushed to completion by Thursday, December 22, or else arrival at the final destination is very likely to occur before Christmas.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/severe-winter-storm-likely-around-of.html

Nice advanced lead CJ signal.

Let you know in 8 days.

Beats that hell out of last December with the -8SD RNA devouring all weather.

I understand the risks, but this is about as a high of a percentage relative to the range that you will see.

Sure, it supports a big storm....but the devil is in the details. If this somehow fails to bury SNE, then no one will want to hear or care that we were right about the general synoptic evolution. Hell, I wouldn't care.

May wanna give that sentiment a week, big boy....lol

That looks like a phase gone wrong on the GEM...nothing to worry about at this range, aside from the fact that the model blows. Its similar from a synoptic standpoint.

Right out of the Jan 2011 playbook.

That run of the GFS phases the ULL that is over se Canada, into the coastal...that is how to resolve the issue without bodily moving the trough 150-200 miles east.

Oh, pretty, pretty please...

Do you guys remember that "I have a dream" post that I made like a month ago that got me about 13 buns? This is it.

I'd get deformed there....expect changes.

You're right...let me salivate over the snow that you will get tomorrow and I assuredly will not, instead.

Yea....

Major-Long Duration Winter Storm Likely for Deep Interior Elevations Friday-Saturday Power Outages Likely Berkshires and Possibly Northern Worcester Hills The first major winter storm of the season will be arriving late tonight and early tomorrow morning. The forecast remains largely unchanged from First Call issued on Tuesday, and even the same general synoptic conceptualization expressed in last Friday's Initial Assessment remains relatively consistent. The Synoptic Situation: Yesterday, deep low pressure began to interact with the negative NAO block that currently in place across southeastern Canada, which has slowed its northeast progression through the plains. Ordinarily, a storm system on the trajectory in the plains would mean a mild rainstorm for most of New England, however, it is beginning succumb to resistance from the block, which will eventually cause it to redevelop closer to the east late Friday night and early Saturday morning. This is what will allow a portion of the area to still experience a significant snowfall. Had the block not ceded any ground, then this transfer would have occurred earlier and more aggressively, which would mean that the secondary coastal low would take over faster and more aggressively, while also tracking further off shore. This would have resulted in a major snow storm for most of the area. But since the primary low is remaining dominant for a longer duration of time, the secondary low is developing later and tracking along the coast, which results in the majority of the forecast area experiencing primarily rain. This is why it is important to remember that it is the synoptic scale nuances that dictate the details of a storm, not necessarily the mode of large scale index, as evidenced by the fact that the NAO remains quite negative despite the small cessation of ground that proves crucial to the forecast. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Precipitation should begin as snow anywhere roughly outside of I495 and off of the south coast by around midnight early Friday morning, and perhaps by around 10pm late Thursday evening across western New England. However, the aforementioned stronger and more resilient primary low results in a stronger southwest flow aloft for a longer duration of time that ultimately scours out the antecedent cold more efficiently, and allows the secondary to track closer to the coast, which creates an easterly fetch into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Given the fact that sea surface temperatures this early in the season are near 50 degrees, this renders it impossible for any initial snowfall to last very long on the coastal plain of southern New England. Thus the precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and then rain anywhere east of the Worcester hills early Friday morning, However, this same easterly feature that results in rainfall further to the east will actually enhance snowfall over the Monadnocks and especially the east-faced slopes of the Berkshires. which means that very heavy snowfall is likely to continue through these areas all day on Friday and even perhaps into early Saturday morning. While it may continue to snow at some valley locations of western mass during Friday afternoon, it will likely struggle to accumulate as efficiently as locales at higher elevations above approximately 700', where power outages will be likely across the Berkshires, northern Worcester hills and Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. Rain may begin to change back to snowfall on early Saturday morning from west to east, as the secondary low pressure areas passes the region. And the midlevel low begins to redevelop along the coast. Had the block not eroded as much and allowed the primary to penetrate as high up in latitude as it did, this mid level redevelopment could have limited the change to rain, but it still may aid in a period of snow showers on Saturday afternoon all of the way to the coast before precipitation tapers off entirely. Final Call: First Call: Issued Tuesday December 13 at12pm. Initial Threat Assessment Issued on Friday, December 9 at 12pm: