40/70 Benchmark

We got lucky in that there was an absolutely exquisite handoff from the neg NAO to the +PNA....it def. didn't have to end up that good, and probably wouldn't the majority of the time if we were to run it again. Point being, its a decent analog, but I don't expect 95".

There are also variations of that....the really good la nina events, like 2010-2011, which is a decent analog, remained favorable through most of January.

LOL Wearing a Dave Epstein mask

Beer

We've come a long way from the regional Stein-sword fights of this past summer.

That, and I also think that the current SSTs belie the fact that the atmosphere is beginning to part ways with what is a very stagnant cold ENSO event.....its almost akin to how winds transfer to the surface more readily in an intensifying tropical system, as opposed to weakening or even steady-state systems. The mechanisms that foster the development of ENSO are what also fuel the associated IOD response and couple with the atmosphere. In a season like this one, while we still have a well coupled event on paper, much of that is residual and more a reflection of what had been...kind of like SSTs being shaped by a previous H5 pattern. I think a lot of this la nina right now is merely an atmospheric imprint of the previous couple of years. At least this is how I perceived the research that I conducted on the relationship between ENSO and the IOD. This goes along with what John is saying, although I think his attribution is probably more geared towards CC than mine.

US. I think there there is value in both because concurrent sensible weather analogs can't capture the MJO cycle. A bunch of H5 plots are great, and the hemispheric pattern obviously shouldn't be neglected, but what is actually happening is kind of a big deal as well. within the context of seasonal forecasting. This is one change I have made this season...I feel like just viewing H5 charts can cause one to miss the forest through the trees when forecasting.

I'm not sure there is ever going to be another scenario where will you will assuredly attribute ENSO as the primary causation lol, and that is the god's honest truth. That said, I agree this particular ENSO event is growing less relevant by the week....anyway, my cool ENSO concurrent analogs are just intended to capture what is and is going to happen, so I'm not too concerned about causation in that respect.

There are for temp and precip anomalies.

I hope he did get hired because he is one of the most talented seasonal forecasters that I know of. Close between him, raindance and Cosgrove.

I don't understand the issue with just telling people that....he'd posted here for years and its seems odd to just disappear, yet still creep in the background. As far as making it out....I'm out and where I want to be family and career wise, so at least for me, jealousy isn't the motivation. Weather is a toy for me...albeit a time consuming one, and I am okay with that.

It's going to be pretty favorable this last week of October.

That has nothing to do with guidance suggesting a neg NAO for December...you can have a neg NAO that isn't tied to a stratospheric cataclysm, you know...

He lurks...just won't post or reply.

32.9/66 today

No.

For ONI, yes.

Boosted annually

I think it gets colder after mid Novie.

I agree, but I need to for work. I also have to get tested twice weekly.

Well, I am at a medical facility with older vets.

I think we should be careful..

I just got it then out of convenience bc my work was offering it onsite and its mandatory by 12-1. I don't really care about any health benefit bc I'm not worried about covid.

I got a little ill my first booster, second one very extreme shoulder soreness, but hardly anything Wedneaday...very mild shoulder pain. No other symptoms..