40/70 Benchmark

I get that the ascending solar neg NAO correlation was insignificant, but it was technically slightly negative and given the fact that the easterly QBO consideration is significant, I don't think its unreasonable to give at least a slightly disturbed PV the nod in the event that dateline forcing continues. It looked to me that the ascending/neg NAO relationship was pretty stable given a basin wide el nino...of course, if el nino goes nuclear and forcing shifts east, then it's all moot, anyway. And I am open to hearing why Tonga will have a greater impact in enhancing the PV during an easterly QBO, basin wide el nino than it did during a W QBO modoki la nina last season.

In the ENSO thread...great articles. Thanks.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

2009 was the last one that didn't.

I mean, imagine the comments if JB was claiming a classic modoki with an MEI of 2.1 and vp pinned over Peru...

Webb is acts like JB...just opposite end of the spectrum.

While the extra tropical Pacific may be more hostile, I think the ENSO will be less hostile to winter enthusiasts than those seasons.

This is in line with my preliminary ideas.

Agree.

Those winters are all near or over 100", so sure...I'll bet against a top 10 winter....robust el nino isn't a high-end snowfall ENSO phase for SNE, anyway...2002-2003 is the only one on there. It's better for mid alt. Strong STJ means alot of LBSW deals.

Well, yea...I said that, too. No one cares about that, though....just want the snow.

Or a mid-winter bang, a la 1987.

I mean, there is an easy path for this winter to suck...not desputing that. But the Pacific would need to change and I am not seeing much guidance suggests that it will. I think overall, we are going to continue in a shitty cycle for several more years, but this season is our reprieve.

Reassess after I drop my next blog.

You had been optimistic.....what changed? I am increasingly optimistic.

Added .02" after midnight, so 1.24" event total. 5.29" on the month.

1.22" on the day 5.27" on the month.

I don't think it's just magnitude of the anomaly, but also the aerial coverage...they both play a role....kind of like ACE with respect to hurricanes.

All I am trying to say is that I see why this time can be different...I also see how it won't end up different. It could go either way.

My thought exactly...I won't mention what season that reminds me of, by it begins with 2 and ends with 0.

Raindance, what are your thoughts on the West PAC warm pool, assuming it persisits, potentially pulling the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the orientarion of the ENSO ssts. I think this is why the Canadian along with some other guidance does that.

Great research, but intuitively speaking, I would expect that ONI threshold to move higher in the face of a warmer planet.

If the el nino ends up that intense, and the west Pacific cools, which would move the mean seasonal vp east of current guidance, then it would be a blow torch. Let's try this....if the ONI peaks around 2.0 and the forcing sets up near the dateline because the anomalous west PAC warmth remains even more extreme and expansive than that within the ENSO region, how do you feel the winter would play out, snowman?