40/70 Benchmark

You are also neglecting to consider the surrounding globe and seem to focused on el nino in a vacuum. The fact that the global waters are so anomalously warm means that the el nino will not be as strong as ostensibly suggested by the ONI and forcing will likely be displaced westward due to the pull of the w pac. Guidance reflects this in the vertical velocity potential and OLR progs. It goes both ways...this is why the meager 2018-2019 el nino acted more like a la nina and why last season's la nina was more impactful around the globe than ONI would imply. You can't be a Bill Belicheck in seasonal forecasting....you need to evolve and adapt to the changing times.

I don't see why anyone should care what the el nino distribution looks like during the fall....sure, there is a lag, but I feel like some people exaggerate that. La nina looked great last November....tilted east, then it flipped into December and we had a very mild, classic modoki la nina season.

I posted the 2m temp and precip maps...near normal to a hair above temps and near normal to hair above precip. You stated "December through February would probably suck". I don't agree with your interpretation.

Yea, IDK Jerry....to be blunt, I don't agree with much of any of what you have had to say over the past month or two. Doesn't mean you are wrong, but I think you are wrong about the interpretation of the JMA guidance, at the very least.

1.29" today here.. heaviest missed me for once.

Hopefully some posts from Tip next week about exiting the solar max to get me through this.

There are other risk factors, like living on a slope...

Kev and Scott must be in their glory with intense dews for as far as the eye can see.

Paul loves using analogs from the civil war era.

Why don't you look at the EMI forecast from Jamestec?

I will probably do better, too....40.5" last year. I had around that in '97'98 and '72-'73, which are the worst case sceanrios.

Toss statisticals... just getting a clue.

Shunt away.

Absolutely correct...just my best estimate.

I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that el nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale.

This is where the RONI comes into play.

There is a wide range of possible outcomes with basin-wide, moderate to strong events.

Not at all....easy to do depending on where you picked up the exchange. NBD.

While I do agree that the SST anomaly configuration is least likely to assume a modoki like configuration, that is not necessarily the case with respect to the velocity potential, which is what is paramount relative to the predominate cold season forcing and resultant weather pattern.

Basin-wide is more likely than both.

They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting.

Even the ones that sucked usually produced at least one or two large ones....the only season that didn't was 1972-1973.

I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO.

Gonna be some nuclear shit going down if we get a system under an anticyclone this year.

I feel as though there is room for both. There is plenty of substantive met dialogue in these threads, but I don't see the harm in breaking someone's marbles when the opportunity presents itself....life is more tolerable when you can allow for some levity. I don't see anything personal or particularly venomous.