40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Models won't accurately portray a very blocked flow until it sees the whites of its eyes, no pun intended.
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Still trending IMO.
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Before 12/20? Nah...
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I'll probably miss that to the southwest, then the Friday deal is good for NNE.
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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/active-mid-december-pattern-poised-to.html
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Yea, that is what I focused on instead of the ridge location that Brooklyn did.
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Nobody can get enough of those...keep 'em coming
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Hopefully it misses, but is still strong enough to alter 12/15
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Yea, formidable showing of the movie Groundhog Day.
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Stunner.
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Just unreal.
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You are correct. I missed that.
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Its not about the amounts it showed, but the overall conceivable trend.
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Nuts sheared to shreds by female confluence? Bravado out to sea?
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You know my weak spots hahahaha That would eat my soul away in short order
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I love 33 and snow in Chatham and 19 and IP in Tolland
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We may end up with an inverted trough on Monday, too (yay)
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Main difference I see is that the low near NF is a bit further away on the GEM, which maybe allows for faster amplification of coastal.
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Triple ninja
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SouthWest FlowEvent.......its when the storm in the mid levels cuts west, causing winds aloft to scream southwest and advecting warmer air ne. But when when there is confluence and cold air in place, the surface low is forced to redevelop off to the se and the warm air advection causes snowfall. There tends to be a transition to sleet for many spots due to mid level warmth
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Not directed at anyone in particular, but I recall a few posts to the effect of "nothing else shows it", blah, blah.....I mean, a 2' blizzard....unlikely, but a plowable snowfall for a portion of the region is a totally viable outcome. I'm guilty of it a lot, too, but its tough to sometimes not view a solution through a biased lens due to the reputation of the model.....all else equal, its not a huge leap of faith that an exiting coastal trends less progressive in the face of a large block.
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I think he was probably basing that off of a presumed unfavorable storm track....just broad-brushing the longer term.
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Yea, we are in the timeframe now where any warmups would be shorter term due to wave-breaking from unfavorable tracks, rather than a hostile overall longwave pattern. The latter is done for at least about a month.
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I don't think its done trending. Folks brushed myself and a few others off when we gave some credence to the CMC yesterday (not to that degree), but this is what happens with blocks....you get faster corrections with shorter lead times.
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Hopefully we get you ALL IN on that...sure fire way to heavy snow.
