40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.
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Yea, the whole "fear regression" argument is done on a regional level...a few narrow swaths have avoided it, but not the majority of us.
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His last prediction was actually pretty flawed...he had very +NAO for 2020-2021 and it was negative.
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Well, the NDJ period almost has it on the west coast, but other than that, the EURO really doesn't...but the JMA almost looks like it has an Aleutian low, and the UK has all lower heights to the south, and higher heights to the north, but maybe that is just a flat Aleutian ridge and that fades into higher SE heights. This graphics on Copernicus aren't the greatest, either.
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@ORH_wxman @CoastalWxIs it me, or do some of these long range seasonal models look more el ninoish than la nina?
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Congrats. I hereby change his name to Stein.
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I swear if Kev ever gets a dog it will be named Epstein.
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Okay, so you mean sensible obs are not consistent with the teleconnection indictors. I think that make sense because I think that atmosphere may start to part ways with la nina a little faster than the ocean does.
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Gloria tracked out there an it was pretty good in this area. The wind field expands to the east, while contracting to the west with extratropical transition.
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I remember I was expecting something like 12/1970 for December heading into last winter, but the RNA porked me...it was too extreme.
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Even that would be NBD where I am.
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Why do you make a series of posts supporting +NAO/AO/EPO, and then make another post citing the tendency for a -NAO/EPO? You are difficult to follow sometimes...maybe its me, and I'm missing something.
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One thing I am very confident of with respect to this winter is that there will be a cold source near by.....how often and for how long it will be able to penetrate this far SE, and the mean storm track are up for debate. But I do not see this being a 2011-2012 type dud....we, especially you, should be in the game more often than not.
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You know when Eric Fisher tells you that its going to cool down, it is going to cool down....guy is like snowman19 with a met degree.
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What an eventful "hump day" you had
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We step and soon we rake.
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In the weekly readings, sure.
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I went to sleep shortly after measuring around a foot at midnight...woke up in the AM to like 30" of cement.
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I wonder if that would make the winter act more like an el nino, as well? Pinatubo induced a strong PV due to the release of aerosols IIRC, but I do not know much about this...
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This is the classic "everyone get carried away with ENSO while Twitter fans the flames" stage of the pre season...like clockwork.
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I don't think so. 1.1..MAYBE 1.2, tops.
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Oh, I know...I just meant the sensible outcome.
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If La nina peaks with a strong ONI, I'll change my screen name to BenKnolls Thong. Not happening.
