40/70 Benchmark

I've always felt like a goal post track was the most likely scenario....one of those deals where nothing happens, but Steve and Pickles will whack it to waves. Pickles will probably chase the waves. Waves=cirrus in my mind.

"Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol

Maybe its me, but I just don't see this as being worthy of anyone's time.....I think it is, and has been pretty clear that the odds of a major US impact are pretty low. The main threat was when it looked like it may cause flooding in PR, but now even that is mitigated with the southern track. Its a boring year...I get it. But I guess more and more with age I would rather not allocate my time toward tracking a lost cause-

41.2

I had a hernia repair in May...started to feel it last December...it was a very small one on the left side of my groin. It didn't show up in any imagery...surgeon was finally able to feel it. I took two weeks off from lifting weights...not bad.

45.5

Well, like I said to Paul...I have no issue with comparing an INDIVIDUAL season to the appropriate climo period...for instance, 1978 to the 1951-1980 period, etc....or 2018 to 1981-2010. However, for a composite of seasons from a myriad of different decades, I prefer the expansive 1951-2010 set. No, I don't expect normal temps for the south as a baseline la nina composite, however, perhaps a certain individual season will turn out that way....which is why we look at a plethora of other variables.

UGH wave talk.....you know a storm blows when you start hearing that...its like when the focus settles on upslope or flooding with respect to a winter storm.

Yea, this is why I use 1951-2010.

Yes. Central based can take on characteristics of both east and west based events.

Yea, I feel like through the goal posts if it develops appreciably.. I don't think its much of a threat to the US.

July and August were brutal, but I guess since the peak of Mt. Washington recorded a freezing temp in June and September, my ass didn't swamp throughout July and August.

It was.

People are desperate for something meteorologically intriguing to take place....duck for cover when OTS is favored lol

CMC takes it into New Orleans!

Agree...I go back to 1950. I think we all understand that the globe has warmed....I don't think anyone using an analog from the 60's would expect it to be as cold today given an identical global evolution. Using 1951-2010 as the base climo period alleviates that issue, somewhat.

Start the thread.

Yea, no brainer that will rise...it had to because it couldn't really get any lower. I'll do another blog next week.

Same....like I said, it felt good viewing a model for the first time since early March.

If you considered ENSO intensity in a vacuum, I absolutely agree. Hopefully in this day and age no one is doing that.

Another analog that I really like is 1956-1957...that will be up there on my list.

That is my early favorite for winter '23-'24......caveat for raindance, not at all a forecast at this point, so don't grade it. Back to this year, there is one year that I really like that is an absolutely exceptional match in terms of summer precip, okay for summer temps, and great match in terms of ACE and solar. Main flaws of this year: - While decent, the summer temp match is not great - QBO is off, as its easterly...but not a huge deal. - While it is another basin wide la nina, its focused a bit further to the east...like 2010-2011, so couple all of that with climate change, and it would be a modified version. Anyway, as we all know, analogs are a tool and never meant to imply a replica season. But this goes along with the theme for a big December and fast start.

That year has some strengths, but there is another one that I like even better....much better temp/precip match to this past summer, and also a better fit in terms of ACE value.

Totally see that....the next winter I see as very similar to 2002-2003, both in terms of intensity and structure. As Raindance so eloquently pointed out, at the inception of this thread I speculated that it would be this coming season, but as it turns out it will be the next one. That became clear once I picked back up tracking ENSO early in the summer.