40/70 Benchmark

This is the thing...its a catch 22. It needs to migrate west in order for el nino to flourish......but if you want a mild winter, then its needs to thread the needle in order to trigger el nino sufficiently, while relegating the resultant forcing to the eastern regions. Very possible, but we just don't know that yet.

This is my point....we saw the opposite last year, when la nina was east based into November, then abrupty shifted into a modoki for winter.

Rather have that taking place now, than October.

Looks more 1987ish to me than 1973 like in terms of ENSO, but more like 1973 with respect to the PDO. News flash: the outcome in terms of winter will likely fall somewhere in between if that model has the right idea.

This just underscores my point about assuming that el nino will be prohibitively east based as it pertains to the interests of winter enthusiasts over the eastern US.

That el nino looks like 1986-1987...no issue with that. I understand the PDO will likely be more negative....just speaking of ENSO.

I don't think he implied any of that. He offered a simple challenge to something that you seem to have an inflated level of confidence in.

I should complete my wrap-up and grading of last season, this week, so I should probably tackle this near the end of May or during June at the latest.

2.77" event total in Methuen.

I think even NNE should be about safe from additional snowfall...probably safe to start tallying up the seasonal totals.

Well, never say never, but essentially agree. 1957-1958 is up there, too.

So far, good....only two days of sweating in the office.

Yea, I ignore that until about June...that's when I usually started blogging about/following ENSO. The barrage of twitter quotes all throughout the spring advertising that the world is sure to be eaten alive by ENSO does nothing for me.

Thanks for that volcano info...most of those winters are good out this way, unless el nino really goes bonkers, which we both seem to doubt.

Yea, the intensity and persistence of WWB needed to get a super event make it just about impossible to confine the warmth to the central Pacific.....on one end of the spectrum, 2009-2010 was about as strong of a n el nino event that you can get, while relegating the warmth to the central Pacific....on the other hand, 2015-2016 was about as evenly distributed and least confined to the east as you can get for a truly high end event. This is why the former produced a generational winter in the mid atl, and the latter a generational winter storm. Two unique warm ENSO events in their own right.

2009-2010 is the closest we have ever been to a super modoki event...that is why it was such a unicorn winter for the mid atl.

1.86" rainfall here.

Do you debate with yourself aloud? (Looks left) "Paul, make a website for those OLR anomalies" (Looks right) "No way, Paul, too much work!" You may be in a strait jacket by the time el nino is declared lol

I guess I just feel as though that is superfluous....but to each their own. It will be interesting to look at, anyway. I am going to focus on peak period and DJFM.

I don't know, it seems like you're over analyzing to a degree...I don't really focus on the origin. I couldn't care less what the event looks like during the summer. But I guess I will be able to speak more to this after I do my el nino groupings.

How so? I don't understand this post.

This makes sense to me. Those super outliers will dry up fast this spring.

Completely agree....went through the same crap last year with the la nina. While it was extraordinarily well coupled with the atmosphere, it was never potent from an ONI standpoint.

I really can't emphasize enough how little this matters right now.

There is definitely a positive correlation between ENSO and the PDO...its not perfect, but its there.