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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Up to that point, its similar to Bob, but the difference is that Bob was allowed to leak east beyond that....this one is blocked, so all hell breaks lose.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am the first one to down play potential SNE tropical scenarios, but that would be scenario to assume a different posture. That ever showed up inside of 4 days or so, I'd be guns blazing...
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    From reality, probably.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like what you did for individual seasons, though...I may adopt that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not going to lie...this just prompted me to view a model for the first time in 6 months. That run is a special kind of "oh shit", as it intensifies on approach to the latitude of Hateras, before taking a track perhaps just east of 1938 and Gloria....that would even spell trouble for MEHthuen.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ensembles will probably have like half of the members buried over the tallest peaks of Hispaniola, and half through the goal post.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wasn't "at" you...obviously you know this...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only above 700' in Tolland
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have a reasonable consensus that this is a threat come this weekend, then I will blog away....attm, we ignore.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Meh, I wipe the dew mist out of my crack w hr 240 charts.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paul I mean more for a composite, when you have a plethora of seasons from various decades...you have to choose one climo set, which is partly why I opt for the most all-encompassing set.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eric Webb sends @Typhoon Tipan early xmas gift: The mid-troposphere temp gradient b/t the tropics & mid-latitude N Hem was at its weakest on record this summer. A weaker gradient leads to a stretched/weak Hadley Cell, favoring sluggish TC activity globally, as TCs are unable to transport heat out of the tropics as efficiently
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The result will be your composite will have overall slightly lower heights, and mine higher.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Track and intensity are intertwined because TBH I would rather not see it organize much with Hispaniola being a distinct possibility. You don't want highly organized, well coupled circulation traversing that island because they become so severely disrupted that dissipation is a distinct possibility, whereas a more diffuse system is more likely to simply redevelop along either coast of the island.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I only use analogs going back to 1950....just using an 1951-2010 catch all.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    In all seriousness, I don't think this season will suck.....IMBY porkies not withstanding.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is also in accordance with central-based la nina climo.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great tool, but that is an obnoxious bug. Which climo period are you going to be running your composites against? I can't stand using the latest ones, even though that is the protocol.....I don't feel as though it provides an accurate portrayal because 2/3 of the composite ends up smeared in blue (it looks like winter-mode Kev made them)....especially in a climate in which cold underperforms at least excuse imaginable. I would rather my visual presentations depict a canopy of higher heights.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope...I'm thinking 1995-1996 like Novie through January, transitioning to Feb 2015 and then March 2018..... And them I'm changing my initials to JB.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That must be what happened to me.....I had the window open and went back after a few days.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    OMFG, I kept forgetting to select the second data set after checking the group 2 box...my god. Getting old.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks, Fisher.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, nah maybe just Novie through January....more of a Feb 2015 and March 2018 second half.
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