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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got another .04" yesterday, so added onto the .92" Monday and .05" on Sunday, I had just over and inch. (1.01"). It was great to see the wife and kids in person again...almost brings me to tears seeing how palpable the change in the children was in just 2.5 months. Wow....time flies, and if you blink, they grow up-
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its the models trying to convey a message, which is the extratropical jolt of energy right before this interacts with the Maritimes. Folks need to be careful not to become too immersed in the quantitative trees or risk losing sight of the qualitative forest, which is the notion that this is not going to be weakening on approach due to said transition. Regardless of whether its 929mb or 940mb at LF, its pretty immaterial because its going to be hell.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like this may retain more tropical characteristics than Sandy did, though, so the winds around the core maybe stronger.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    West Pacific el nino is modoki el nino...what exactly are you distinguishing?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is probably a good starting point for the over/under...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It may not ever warrant a name....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Unfortunately, do you want to know what the real travesty is? This is probably the more profitable avenue for him at this point, since he had established a reputation as a prominent contributor in the field, he has a platform and can use the sensationalism as a vehicle for a tremendous volume of "click", which generates massive income. If you have ever read the book on the Red Sox "Feeding the Monster", this is the equivalent of that within the meteorological industry.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, agree. I do think 930s are in play.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    929mb at the latitude of S NH 105hrs out on the EURO. Think about that-
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It maybe like 10-15mb higher than that, but for the most part, the insane intensity is relatively accurate with all of that extra tropical juice from the front phasing in. Remember, this isn't a purely tropical entity at that latitude....look at the front being absorbed into the circulation.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It would be very bad, but not quite as bad as NF is going to get it on these runs because its having extratropical energy phase into it with latitude.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am going to develop classification and composite for el nino during the upcoming year, like I have for la nina. East-based el nino is generally more hostile, and I'm sure the data will reveal this.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    For the record, this la nina is clearly basin wide attm, not modoki. Its also remaining meager, as many of us have contended it would: 07SEP2022 19.8-0.9 24.2-0.7 25.7-1.0 27.5-1.1 14SEP2022 19.9-0.8 24.1-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.7-0.9
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    She may prefer at least a few inches, no love for the innie
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently disjointed from the low level circulation that remains in TB.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a shame what he has become with the rise of the internet.....he was at the top of the industry 20 years ago.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gulf....my only concern is that it could be one of those lame, low riders that nails central America or the Yucatan. Looks unlikely, but long way out...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny you mention 2002 because I have been feeling like it would be more of an interior season up here in terms of snowfall, which January 2003 def was before PD II. January 1987 was like that, too.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good 'ole "Jack O" from Eastern and founder of StormVista....RIP.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't believe that I missed this. Same page for the most part, as far as this potentially not looking like a typical la nina. Any thoughts on March?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am eager to watch Fiona unfold in the Maritimes. I usually don't care about systems outside of the continental US, but something about a LI express redux, though displaced east, intrigues me....will be nice to sit back and watch and not have to worry about the blog, too. Its rare that a system that captures my interest doesn't necessitate blogs, so that will be cool. I'll be busy next week, though.....gonna fire out a quick winter update today, then onto the tropics all of next week.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally on board with a pretty big impact next week.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do not dislike the pattern of these big tropical systems from multiple basins merging with extratropical lows throughout the fall.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely poured this evening...frequent thunder and lightning. About time...
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