40/70 Benchmark

No, entirely sarcastic. Believe it or not, I'm more resilient than my lawn and will perservere.

Rain is serious bidness.

Yea, heartbreaking for them....they'll probably protest my outlook now that the truth is out.

After I move, I will get a wooden post, but for now, I strategically place it at the side of the house that is against the wind direction, so that it doesn't get any contamination from the roof. Seems very accurate, despite less than optimal placement.

Yea, I don't really care about LE of snow...I'm not gonna pull a Dendrite and cook the funnel to get LE..I just record how much snow fell.

Easy if rain isn't your thing...took me until this year.

Yea, Bob Strokes had to find a new line of work.

This site is addictive. Former OCMs: Where Are They Now? / Information / TWC Classics

Yes.

Dennis Smith was in the field, I remember.

We had originally thought that it peaked at 150mph in the western Bahamas (we're else?), before fluxuating back to 140mph just before hitting FL.

Frisky rev...

I can't believe that you slept through Andrew....did you live in Tolland in the early 90s?

I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s. We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996. March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March. January 2021 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of January...2011 had been the last one. December 2020 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of December dating back to December 2010. Unless this is connected to climate change in some way, you have to figure that the other shoe is about to drop.

I already announced that mine was Hurricane Andrew in the tropical thread. I know just about all of us sick enough to have done it, so which event popped your nocturnal cherry?

I feel better about it not being a ratter there.

I remember seeing a young Cantore and his afro sitting in the forecast office....back before his field days.

They happen, just not this year...which is why we drought, regionally.

Relative bullet dodged in both instances...Katrina really weakened and veered east, as it ended up a glorified N GOM collapser. Andrew just whiffed Miami to the south.

Well, it isn't like it was a uniform soaker, either.

While I don't think its going to be a banner year, nothing I see implies misery for the Mid Atlantic in terms of snowfall, either. Regardless of what the arctic domain does, the Pacific is going to provide some windows of opportunity. I mean, its within the realm of plausibility, but I wouldn't go plunging into the Potomac quite yet...its not awful.

You have me beat

Not much to track, so we reminisce.... The wee hours of this morning represent the 30th anniversary of the first meteorological event that I ever pulled an all-nighter for in the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in south Florida. Even as an 11 year old, I couldn't fathom the scenes of destruction that came out of there and it took me decades to comprehend the gravity of what would have taken place had that storm made landfall about a mere 10 mi to the north, in downtown Miami. It will happen at some point.

Interesting to see 2020-2021 and 1970-1971 show up on Raindance's best match list, after I concluded today's blog post by highlighting those two years as the only basin-wide, moderate la nina seasons...I also like that they had a fairly high MEI, especially the former. One of the most gratifying aspects of seasonal forecasting is seeing two forecasters arrive at similar conclusions through different methodologies....almost akin to ensembles consensus, with the forcecaster of course being the ensemble member, and the methodology being the perturbation to initial conditions. I think that is the holy grail for forecast confidence. Should be a bit more festive this December.