40/70 Benchmark

The future is uncertain, and when it hasn't snowed yet for much of the region, the default setting is reverse psych. I have 2" on the year after a -6SD NAO block..yea, I lost my shit, but you have to get over it and try to be objective moving forward.

Yea, same conclusion as me, only different angle to get there. Thanks.

The pattern will not be held in place by SST anomalies....they can help to sustain when everything else is favorable.

Bingo....the whole "jet retraction" concept eludes me, but I am confident that the Pacific will be good in January. If that is what delivers, then sign me up. Care to explain the jet retraction stuff?

I've been expecting pretty normal snowfall since November....when many expected the epic December, and I still do now....while the bipolar pendulum swings towards "it will never snow again".

Feb 2015?

Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.

You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.

More favored in eastern QBO, which is part of the reason that I didn't expect one.

Remind me to stay home behind locked doors that week.

I only worded it that way because I had just made a post to the effect that although the season may play out similarly, its unwise to anticipate as much snow as we had in 2010-2011 and December is a good example of why.

Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.

Ditto.

I have 2"...still feel good about at least reaching normal, which is in the low 60s.

The only two that are of much relevance are 2021-2022 and 2010-2011.

I try to get out a December wrap up and January update today or tomorrow.

Sorry, I just feel like I spend all of this time articulating my thoughts on the season in one package, and then people read waaay too much into what I post in casual dialogue on a chat forum. Mostly Raindance, but I guess I projected that frustration onto you a bit. I'm probably most nervous about my February thoughts....any official SSW would be a deviation from the expected, so hopefully it occurs early in January.

I don't feel nervous about this in the slightest...TBH, I feel more confident than I did a month ago because I knew that I was betting on this season leaving something on the table....and now it has. City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 40-50" ? ? NewYork, NY(Central Park) 25-35" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 15-25" ? ? Baltimore, MD 10-20" ? ? Washington, DC 5-15" ? ? Albany, NY 75-85" ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60" ? ? Providence, RI 30-40" ? ? Worcester, MA 75-85" ? ? Tolland, CT 55-65" ? ? Methuen, MA 60-70" ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30" ? ? Burlington, VT 90-100" ? ? Portland, ME 85-95" ? ? Concord, NH 80-90" ? ?

That is not below normal in most of the area, first of all. Secondly, I feel like I have been detailed enough with respect to my thoughts regarding this season.

15.8 for the low

GFS has schooled it where it counts this season....PAC.

Yea, something like that...

I have all or my numbers down, so quote those.

I think we could still see 2010-2011 totals minus 20-30" or so...

That guy is brutal.