40/70 Benchmark

I've already admitted that. That said, I don't think it's going to pan out for many of any.

Hopefully with each successive suite, people can process this latest failure so we can move past it and focus more collective analysis on next week. I get the resistance...I do...its another can kick, etc...but it is what it is. Get over it-

Near Benchmark...good enough for me at day 7.

UK I think would extrapolate out to a big hit next week.

Last couple of EURO suites have had good continuity with respect to the focus on next week. Doesn't mean its right...

I wouldn't feel as good in general in southern CT/RI, but that is just my opinion.

It has more of a chance than Saturday, which has looked like shit around here for awhile. I guess I may feel differently near the south coast, but...

I have zero interest in Saturday. Its going to miss up here. 100% of my interest in next week.

So will you give the morgue style posting a rest for once?

This.

Reminds me a bit of 3/5/01, too.

EPS trend was for slightly weaker blocking, which allowed for closer track...hopefully that doesn't continue, but not too worried....at least for my locale.

EPS:

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

I am willing to bet that thermals would also be less of an issue if you save the best dynamics for closest approach to the region, too...you can see in the Kutchera map that there is a pretty identifiable dependence on elevations....has the "up and in" look. That would be less of an issue if you delayed the H5 closure and potential capture. LBSW exacerbates thermal issues and causes some funky crap in the SGZ, but those are issues for a much closer range.

Dude, wife and kids are with fam over seas for several weeks right now, so let me know if you head up this way.

I get that there is still plenty of QPF for SNE that run....but you are always playing with fire when things close off/occlude too soon....again, I realize this is one day 7-8 OP run....speaking more from a theoretical sense.

I'm not as worried about the track, or how much it hugs at this point....what is more important from a SNE perspective over the next several days is delaying that H5 capture that results in LBSW. I think that is what becomes more set in stone than the exact track. I feel like ensembles will do just that. I'm feeling better about settling on this date/wave is "the one"....aligns well with the 1956 analog. People are going to weenie me for that...they have been all season and probably will right up until it happens. Did the same shit leading into March 2018, Jan 2016, and Jan 2015...That's fine-

It found it for the southeastern third of SNE, that run-

Just opining on what I believe will actually happen as others have also been doing....at the end of the day, that is what people care about.

Hopefully the ENS are more progressive.

Its manufacturing failure for 3/14-15