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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you want to make it even simpler, guess which is the only one of those seasons with a disturbed polar region? There are reasons why the others all featured a strong PV.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a big deal IMO...the event had to move westward if el nino were to flourish, as 3.4 is the main indicator.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I didn't know any better as a 15yo in 1996. You would think the pros would have-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Really? At our latitude? Care to name the el nino seasons with 3 or fewer advisory events at Boston?? And again...keep in mind that the bulk of that +4 to +5, if accurate, will be achieved at night.....the fact that we radiate to 25 instead of 19 will not necessarily inhibit seasonal snowfall.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some, sure.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, 2015-2016 had us merely brushed by one of the largest east coast snow events in history and some SNE areas still finished near normal snowfall. 2018-2019 was a meager el nino that never coupled and left us in residual la nina hang-over. If this el nino is nearly as potent as you believe, then that won't happen.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going to depend on the polar fields.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't imply that this fatailstic thought process was "wrong", but rather dysfunctional. The fact is that healthy el nino events leave us prone to high-magnitude snow events.....if you average 40" per year and you get half of that in one event, then you are several advisory events away from climo-
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was young and naive enough to take it hook-line-and-weenie back then. I scoff at similar present day set ups. Unless you have the huge ULL over the lakes to hoover these things in, adjust east of guidance once above about 38* in latitude.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have any issue with essentially punting the first half of winter.....I am not trying to claim a record winter is en route....but rather I find it hard to believe that we won't have some favorable stretches this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The RONI, as well..... .33 cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same place Brett came in back in 1999....another one in 2017, too.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    But it was east-based!!!!!! How could that be? I'll bet @snowman19's great grandfather kicked his horse and buggy and smashed all of the lanterns in the cabin.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The rebuild at H5 continues. If you care to donate to the fictional Red Cross, send your account and routing number to [email protected].
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 was average. He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I think the snowfall looks reasonable.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    More importantly, the forcing remains west....my guess is they meet somewhere in the middle (150-160Wish?), as max anomalies slide westward and forcing eastward.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    1948. Multivariate ENSO Index (webberweather.com)
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its just one tool....the problem is that everyone is looking for a that fail-proof "silver bullet" in seasonal forecasting and once we realize that any new concept isn't that, then its automatically mocked and considered useless. No wonder progress is so slow with that mindset because I don't think there is any failproof indicator....the atmosphere is too complicated.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MEI and RONI did not reflect el Nino at all that season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like part of the issue that year was people taking into a consideration a weak el nino when forecasting, but the atmosphere wasn't in el Nino mode.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same crap last fall about la nina...peak ONI was 1.0....
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good thing there is never any ENSO hype-
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look at the majority of good winters and it was mainly due to one great month.
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