40/70 Benchmark

Lo of 37.6...refreshing.

Yes, and just to be clear....this doesn't: 1) Assume the MEI remains weak 2) Ensure a snowy wiinter even if it were to, as there are plenty of other reasons why winter could be very mild with a relatively meager MEI.

I think this is what is captured by the RONI and MEI....which I referred back to in a follow up query that when unacknowledged.

He has said himself it isn't going to be a super el nino...which is all that is being implied. Doesn't mean a blockbuster winter for the east necessarily. You can't win with him....if you view things differently than he does, then you're "stupid", or an "idiot" or lazy....but god help you if your forecast shares similarities to his, then you copied his work. Compliment him and its met with silence....anything less than that elicits an adversarial response. The course of least regret is probably simply to ignore and to allow him to stew in his own venom.

37.8

38.5

Snowman is gonna need to deliver another +IOD sermon in order to prop the 'ole morale back up after that graph

Well, you may want to let webbieweather in on your dirty little secret.

Yea, I just mentioned the RONI and MEI again and let it go.....these public figures can get pretty cagey and defensive when challenged on Twitter in front of followers....its like a school yard bully being challenged in front of his friends.

All nice winters except for 1994 and 2006, which had a supernova PV....lends itself to my point about the polar domain being crucial this year.

This is what is so frustrating about seasonal forecasting....its so easy to cherry pick data to suite whichever argument or angle one would like.

The W PAC does look cooler in the image that he presented...

Hadn't noticed this last night...here is his response to me.

Well, apparently @webberweather needs a satelite to see that.

1 degree C above is pretty beliebable around here. Take.

It seems like the people in this place find a new acronym every season lol

And typewriters were common place...about as good a chance of seeing those this winter.

I'm in Chelsea until 4, anyway.

Yea, I am probably porked.

Yea, I agree on that. Brutal. A lot of those people probably have political agendas.

What was said was that the NE warming FASTER than everyone else was a cycle.....but the warming itself is not.

A scantily clothed scooter hunched over on a sidewalk in a remote village, rocking back and forth feeding the monkies while murmuring to himself....."they stole my circle jerk"..."they stole my circle jerk". Concerned natives continue to gather around conversing amongst themselves in native tongue...

We will certainly need it...agreed.

Yes, absolutely. Any ENSO state, including neutral, can "trainwreck" a winter...however, super el nino is far more likely than any other to do so. Furthermore, the ceiling for a winter is much higher for a strong vs "super" el nino.