40/70 Benchmark

I am just going om experience here and local climo....as long as this doesn't back in overhead, which I call BS on...I will get at least a foot. Interior ne MA is the best lower elevation spot to be more often than not in these late season elevation deals. No downslope and mitigated marine influence this time of year...if mid levels hold, it will snow.

Yea, the stall/capture/loop stuff always take a bit longer (east) to materialize than modeled...that is all I was banking on when everything was backing up today. This event reminds me of Dec 1992...just from a sensible standpoint.

It consolidated the low more slowly and leaves the nipple longer.

It went east?

Thanks god it was more consolidated!

LOL GFS is worse than I thought here.

Run that for KLWM?

Nervous...could go either way. Trusted my gut...famous last words, this season.

Usually these phased lows end up a bit more progressive than modeled, so I will bank on that...consolidated without retrograde would be ideal. I agree on that.

Like Scott said earlier, hopefully a major event like this with marginal thermals will prompt action to address that.

I agree with you...just saying that a more consolidated low has a better shot of pulling that off. It would be far more detrimental here than it would be in Ayer.

The Euro cut back here from 06z bc it trended in that same direction as the GFS..just not as drastic. Do I think it ends up backing in as much as the GFS? No...but if it does, then I'm done. More consolidated low increases that risk.

Yea, the small area is MBY. Like it usually is.

Yea, normally I get away with a great deal if late season marine influence.

I just don't agree...you can see that the GFS consolidates faster, and backs in further...when it was more of the inverted trough look, it didn't back in like that. These recent runs are unequivocally worse here than the ones early this AM. Apparently BOX agrees.

Yay...the low tracks overhead, my blizzard is saved I need to hope the retro shit is overdone, which it often is...but that is the trend today.

Thar initial "nipple low" to the west was saving my ass..sure, it causes some southerly flow, but that is more damaging lower in latitude and to the west...point is, the more consolidated low backing in more is more detrimental to this area than the H925 s flow from the nipple low.

This is what I tried to tell people who were trying to brain wash me into rooting for a more consolidated low...it helps areas to the west, that are porked by the nipple low....but now that that is consolidated east faster, its deeper and back in more to screw me. Alot of pro mets this AM just completely could not comprehend that...funny part is, now they will used that as an excuse to say they were right about my map being too high for this area...no shit, because what I said would suck for me it it happened, indeed took place.

Snowfall gradient is gone from more laitudinal this AM, like 3-5-01, to now more longitudinal...like Dec 96, Bliz 88 (not using it as an analog).

No...GFS and NAM would result in very little snow here.

Yea, I get the airmass, but 'cmon....bad luck with synoptics in December and here, if that backs into Mass.

I need to hope that is overdone, as it often is...but if that's right, I have wasted a lot of time on a final call that will be toilet paper in the end....non event. See ya next fall.

This season would be probably once in a lifetime for me for so little snow return on such strong episodes of blocking.

Toss that...with that track, less makes sense here.

Hope GFS is wrong, but that would epitomize the last 5 years for me.