40/70 Benchmark

Yea...ideally, we would want a bit less blocking, but I would still take my chances with that level of blocking again....it always comes down to luck in the end, regardless of the pattern...just that the deck is more stacked in your favor in certain set ups.

Extreme violence.

The main concerns if you are looking for a good winter in the NE are 1994, 1972 and 1991. I feel like 1972 was just some bad luck, as the pattern wasn't as horrific as the result....but nonetheless, the PV did us in on both occasions. I have been saying it all spring and summer....the polar domain will decide this winter. I don't feel the Pacific will present a strong enough signal one way or another. If we can avoid a death star of a PV, then we should be okay. My primary concern is the volcano, as i feel strongly that is did us in with respect to both 1991 and 1994....New England did well in between because the shape, size and orientation of the PV, not unlike 2007-2008 (I realize it was la nina, just referencing it due to the PV). But that is a precarious path to take in a bonafide el nino...those (92-93 and 93-94) were warm neutral years. We will need to avoid a strong PV in this el nino.

Thanks for this....JMA doesn't go back as far as this data. Will definitely be borrowing this data and referencing you, of course. 1926-27, 1919-20, 1940-1941, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966...all great winters.

Agree RE 91-92..match in every aspect...I feel like Pinatubo is was doomed that winter with a very intense PV....while I doubt as dramatic an impact this season, it is on the table.

Great post...will def. keep this in mind come fall.

I hit 48.7.

We have about a May 10 sun today.

Yes...around about the 10th...just like Feb.

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

We always start hearing the crap about the sun getting higher, blah, blah....no denying tushys don't broil in the car as much in August.

8.39" IMBY during July.

.98".

Funny, I have been saying all summer on an anecdotal level how much this summer reminds me of 2009 out here. I really like the 1991 analog.

Not true for me....while it sucked (40.5" when average is about 62"), there are plenty of seasons that have featured less snowfall where I am....just south of me was historically bad. But for me it just a run of the mill clunker.

I'm just going to hit on the MEI and RONI.....I factor them into my intensity classifications, instead of going strictly on ONI.

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

Yea, something tells me he wouldn't be all that miserable in a snow-barren land.

I'm a tropical weenie myself, but why set yourself up for disappointment... When there is a bonafide threat, I'll frequent this thread as much as anyone...save for maybe Scott....who is probably here more often than google.

Saw this posted before, he is incorrect in that 1957 was not east based.

Pretty cool article explaining how the delayed coupling of el nino is causing the S hemisphere winter to deviate from expectations....also calls into question just how strong it will ultimately grow. The Wet and Cold Australian Winter Seems to be Defying the Recent El Nino Alert and is in Stark Contrast to the Official Winter Weather Outlook (severe-weather.eu) If El Niño is not yet coupled, it suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific have not fully synchronized to create a well-defined El Niño event. The absence of coupling means that the typical atmospheric response and associated impacts on weather patterns may not be fully realised. It indicates that the development and strength of El Niño are still uncertain or not yet pronounced. Essentially, it is too early to know how significant this El Niño will be and certainly too early to be experiencing any direct impacts on our Australian winter weather.

I knew that would elicit a response from you.

Surprising to me, but it make sense because stronger forcing out near the dateline will have that impact. Confirms the theory that location of forcing is more important than intensity.

This shit ends next weekend, thankfully....pattern change.