40/70 Benchmark

I think what I did poorly with is identifying the Pacific jet as primary cause of the warmth...instead opting to articulate it as "western troughing" and "cool ENSO atmospheric momentum". I could have done a better job conveying that. My understanding of the Pacific jet isn't great...I need work there.

Yea, I tried to go out of my way to communicate that key difference between this season and the 2009 analog when I did my work last month.... some periods of a stronger PV are likely, especially early on, as implied earlier. This placement is also quite similar to the mean seasonal forcing during the QBO/solar el Nino analog season of 2009-2010, albeit even slightly further to the west as to include more maritime phase 6 involvement: Which is one of the reasons why the coming season is unlikely to rival that one in terms of consistent cold and record magnitude of blocking/mid Atlantic snows. However, the winter pattern would also be volatile with extensive thawing periods due to the influence of MJO phase 6, which would feature a stronger PV working in conjunction with western troughing, which resonates with continued cool ENSO atmospheric momentum. Thus while more snowfall and colder temperatures than last winter is quite likely throughout the east, winter '23-24' may not be remembered for its snowpack retention along much of the coastal plane.

Thanks, guys. Good stuff.

Yea, same page. Care to link that OLR model?

Yea, I don't expect anything until after NYE.

What are you thinking, second week of January?

Well, a tee shirt will have to do.

Talk dirty to me....I will be raking in a wife beater

One thing I like is that the brief Stein from November seems to be a thing of the past.....seems to be plenty of precip. I know the @TauntonBlizzard2013's of the world will expect that to abate once the cold comes, but I don't think so.

You're a killah

...to get to phase 5

Those lower heights by AK look to be getting into a more palatable position at that point.

I'm going to have to take a look this and probably the rest of December when I have more down time tomorrow.

Just embrace it, dude....can't change it. Mother nature will take care of that in due time.

I hope so....snow isn't on the table and I am planning one more run at leaf touch up.

I think it was the March Super Storm for me....Feb 2013 maybe second.

Its a -fold issue for me: 1) l live in an area that is notorious for underperforming on winds in the MRV....this issue is augmented by the fact that guidance is usually overzealous, as well. 2) The "upside" is a loss of power with three little kids. Pass.

Why did @bluewavecross the road?

Hungry, hungry Hippy

More margin for error at least in terms of climo by January.

Yes, I agree that losing the blocking is going to shift that warmth east...was just saying the same thing.

Here is an example of the impact of the NAO....it's not "useless" and it does matter, granted the Pacific is king. The warmth should spread east once it flips positive and the PAC jet persists, potentially better aligning with my composite.

Yea, it's a great late month match once the AO/NAO go positive.

Here a couple of quotes from my work to remain mindful as the frustration mounts. There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual la Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023. Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs:1953-1954,1965-1966,1972-1973,2004-2005,2018-2019

I'm not.