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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    As much as I love me some 2004-2005, I believe raindance mentioned that ACE only matters during la Nina.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    3.21" final
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.98" as of midnight...R-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I have been asserting all fall.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    .09" rainfall.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    @snowman19you keep quoting this ghost that supposedly said to "ignore the MEI" last year..who said that? The MEI is part of the reason why every seasonal forecast on the face of the planet called for -PDO/PNA last season, despite a modest peak ONI of -1.0, which was identical to 1995-1996. Yet there was general consensus that normal snowfall in the east would be a tall task. I'll pull up that portion of my outlook, if you would like...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only aspect that is definitely true is the dice are loaded towards warmer outcomes. The rest is speculation and heresey at this time.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take that and run...its not frigid by any stretch, but its warm over AK and the arctic. Slightly above normal here works assuming above average precip.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand this, but it doesn't change my opinion that anomalies over overly attributed to CC.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I disagree. Its easy to blame every drought and heatwave on GW. We're just going to have to agree to disagree. Anomalies have and always exist independent of CC.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. I'm sure there is simply less cold available in the absolute sense, but the pattern last year sucked and we also had some bad breaks.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That season was actually my top analog last year, so I was obviously expecting more snow haha
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, higher heights over the poles means a weaker PV.....but the catch is that what cold there is will be more readily available to the mid latitudes. However, given the depth of the trough in the west, the vast majority funneled out there.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    To me, its clear 2023 had a slightly deeper RNA trough. Also, some of the snowfall is just simple variance due to the chaos of the atmosphere. We def. had some bad synoptic breaks last season independent of global warming.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is a big leap that will certainly warrant much more time to confidently discern. We have yet to see one of those theories persevere, whether it be the warm blob in the north Pacific, or changes in the arctic....time will tell.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was about to analyze the polar domain, but you saved me the trouble. Again, not arguing identical patterns would be warmer now, nor that those would have some impact on the H5 pattern, but that was not the primary issue last year. Did it cost us a few to perhaps several inches in a season with a real dearth of well-timed polar airmasses in the source region of se Canada? Probably.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Precisely.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you will definitely reach that threshold the lower in latitude and elevation a given locale is.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are also some instances when the huge positive anomaly over the gulf stream benefits us...for instance, perhaps it augments cyclogensis a bit more than it would have in 1955 and accordingly, heights crash just a bit more. There will eventually be a tipping point, but we aren't there yet. as evidenced by the past 20 years of snowfall along the east coast. Like volcanic eruptions and SSW, the impact of GW is too simplified because we don't fully comprehend it and are still learning as we go.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The temperature of the Gulf stream is the least of my concerns when a PV lobe phases over Saskatchewan, as the Sierra is building a 50 foot snowpack.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last year was extreme. It would have been extreme in 256BC and it will be extreme in 2136. That said, are marginal situations becoming more perilous due to GW? Yes, of course.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly. GW is a very polarizing issue....many folks just can't distinguish between someone how feels as though there is rampant overattributing, like myself, from someone who is denying that it exists. It is possible to acknowledge the reality of GW while feeling that it becomes a convenient excuse for everything and anything...whether it be consciously, or unconsciously.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand the height changes...I don't need a graph to illustrate that. But a near record cold phase of the Pacific was never good news for eastern winter enthusiasts.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still say even back in the 50's you would have run the risk of that PV lobe in December phasing west with an RNA that fierce.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fairly certain that Lee did not end up undergoing RI again, nor will it landfall in the US as a Hurricane, so this is further evidence that the BS about me having some sort of agenda last weekend was a complete fabrication. No changes to my thoughts from last week (Sep 7). Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US | Eastern Mass Weather Happy tracking.
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