40/70 Benchmark

Guy is an ass and he knows he is full of hot air....only type of people that do that. Anyone confident in their abilities doesn't feel the need to constantly try to prop themselves up on the shoulders of others.

I don't see anything wrong with it....Dec looks rather uneventful, though not a torch...and January is fine. That is a split flow.....there is enough cold there IMO.

Makes more sense to me. Glad to see that. All three months look good, though.

Looks like Old Man Winter's Bday it is- Someone bring a cake haha

I am actually not frustrated with @snowman19....he has grown on me TBH....good guy with a lot of great insight, even if a healthy dose of it is recycled from Mr. Roundy's keyboard. lol We disagree and I accept that.

TBH, I don't even mind the W PAC cooling some....all set with a great deal of phase 6 this winter....I am not concerned about canonical forcing setting up in the seasonal mean, though I am sure there will be some thawing periods that do feature that.

Dude, region 4 is near record levels....what are you looking for, Jesus to piss near the dateline? Its basinwide.

Right....whenever available. Thanks, man.

I suspect not, this year.

You guys are clutch with the incessant graphics feed into an ongoing outlook effort lol

Gracias.

Hey, @griteater, Have an update graphic through Sept/Oct?

We should make weenie emojis count as a post.

@brooklynwx99Draftkings is opening up a line for the over/under on Roundy quotes attributing the delay of the December cold to that one last WWB.

Dec ends up being a case of kick the can, I think....which will trigger a slew of tweet quotes from @snowman19and melt downs from the usual suspects.

I expect it to be major.

We need to make sure that PV disruption continues on schedule in early December, though....any later, and the impact of it will be delayed until after the new year...which is my default premise, anyway.

Looks good. December looks a bit compressed to me, so you wonder if that is more of an overrunning month focused on CNE/NNE.

Looks good to me.

I don't mean only, but its playing a role IMO....just my opinion. I don't claim to be able to scientifically prove it.

This makes sense because its during the winter that the PV descends and compresses the flow against the poleward drifting HC.

I really don't think it makes much difference.

Even before that, though, I think deeply -NAO seasons were pretty scarce. I guess 2010-2011 would qualify, too....going back and looking over 30 years. I would say 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 would fit the bill...2020-2021 wasn't quite extreme enough IMO. 4 going back 40 years, I would say...1986-1987 just misses like 2020-2021, IMO.

I am mixed on how much I buy into proposed impacts from CC, but one that I am increasingly adopting is the conceptualization that extremely negative NAO seasons are now exceedingly rare as a manifestation of it.... @GaWx Larry has posted numerous stats about how rare it has become (2009-2010 being the last) and it makes sense with the more compressed/faster flow making long duration/extreme blocks more difficult to achieve. Seems easier to pull off on the Pacific side, since its upstream and a larger domain space. Not sure if @bluewave's stuff about NAO blocks being displaced to the south plays into this.....maybe they are now frequently protruding out of the NAO domain space and this registering into the seasonal index less.

Maybe someone that brings a laptop can link you in...