40/70 Benchmark

The problem with them is that they are very impressionable and you have a very knowledgeable poster like Bluewave, who is driven by a neurotic overcompensation style agenda, so he always uses his power to seek out avenues for warmth that are usually connected to CC. He is like a TauntonBlizzard 2.0 in that he finds scientific support for this body armor. They are all Bluewave foot soldeirs.....he is like warm bias "Krang" from Nina Turtles back in the day.

I'll bring my KU volume II to highlight some potential reenactments this year.

Hopefully we can get that SSW within my 12/25 to 1/8 window...I pick two week windows based upon the anticipated seasonal progression and timing of analogs. I may have been a whisker too fast back near the start of November when I published.

Here is an excerpt from last month's publication. In the case of the 1986-1987 winter season, given that solar minimum occurred during the prior fall in September of 1986, that particular season occurred near the solar minimum at the onset of the ascending phase. This is consistent with the research marginally favoring a negative NAO. The 1994-1995 cold season coincided with the descending phase of solar cycle 22 given that the minimum was observed in August of 1996, which also corroborates the research of Meliniemi et al that favors a +NAO during this portion of the solar cycle. The 2006-2007 winter season also took place during the descending phase of solar cycle 23, as the minimum was in December 2008. This season featured both a +NAO and exorbitantly potent PV in the seasonal mean. However, the correlation is not always evinced so strongly, as was the case with respect to the 2002-2003 and 2004-2005 seasons. In these cases, the increased geomagnetic energy and enhanced solar winds that accompany the descending phase of the solar cycle presumably partially negated a potentially strong blocking signal from two weak to moderate Modoki El Niño events. Thus they were essentially neutral within the polar domain in the seasonal mean. The view can also be expanded in order to consider the older El Niño analogs. All three of the basin-wide 1925-1926, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966 analogs occurred during the ascending phase of the solar cycle and featured a great deal of high latitude blocking. The fact that the 1991-1992 winter occurred during the descending phase of solar cycle 22 in conjunction with a stronger Pacific dipole allowing El Niño to express more assertively in the hemisphere, is likely the reason why that season differed so dramatically within the polar domain despite a fairly similar SST anomaly profile (EMI). It is extra tropical influences of this sort that largely dictate what transpires within the polar domain in the absence of an overwhelming signal from ENSO.

1-3 years after solar max, solar wind picks up and aids in the distribution of geomagnetic energy throughout the earth's atmosphere...this is important because solar wind and geomagnetic energy are correlated with a stronger PV and +NAO.

I think its been since 2011 that we have had a great peak climo period....even 2015 got going the last week of January. Having a great pattern coincide with solar nadir is precious.

Heh....well, lets see. I (and others) was (were) saying the same thing a year ago.....that isn't lost on me, but I am confident.

Right...this is where you have to play a hunch and get subjective and anecdotal. We have just endured a several year stretch when essentially everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. I think this is the year that ends, especially since we are going to have a few rough years on tap in other year or two with descending solar triggering increasing geomagnetic fields.

I am extremely confident that January will not be boring and have been since about August. Hindsight will be 20/20, but IMO this is the easiest of the 10 seasons I have issued for.

Not a bad consensus....my analogs scream storm around the holiday, which is why I highlighted that period in my work. Not a HECS or anything and may very well have precip type issues.

GFS for comparison GEM:

Yea, ideally the ULL would be a bit further south, but I would take that look and run.

Fair point.

Its like the Kutchera snow maps...they are only of any use in very select circumstances.

I meant the weekly product.

It depends on how quickly we can get the ULL out of AK...EURO guidance pulls it out faster, which likely gets us a winter storm right around Xmas. The GFS is slower.....so its rain.

I thought I may have met him....thanks. I am sure I will remember him when I see him.

I will say, I am sure that there will be some sequences of Maritime contributions that aren't reflected in the monthlies....IE, I don't think we are going to see this standing wave of orgasm from Christmas to St Paddy's day. But those details won't be picked up at this range....so I agree with you. For instance, I feel that there will be a thaw in mid January.

Maybe just the core four...fine with me, but would like to see others. @DavisStraightdon't think we have met yet..

I don't think its relegated to mid Atlantic and south......N stream looks to remain active.

The Euro weeklies match the ensembles and Roundy's MJO tool perfectly...they have also been consistent for months. I don't think this is just a case of "stock ENSO"....I think its right.

Snowman, kudos for recognizing it and changing that emoji. I respect that.

@snowman19Can I ask why you weenie certain contributions of empirical data? I mean, if you were genuinely objective, I feel as though you would welcome that..... I make it a point to stick up for you because I think you add a lot of great info, regardless of whether or not is in the best interest of my forecast or personal preference.

So whom do we have? Jerry, Scooter, Will, Garth and me....anyone else that is definite?