40/70 Benchmark

I love "penetrative" patterns.

Or maybe the SW really is just going to get strung out. Would that suprise you?

@jbenedetWhat I don't understand is that if we are "imbeciles" and a "circle of rejects", why not simply defer on waiting for the board majority to place you on ignore and simply stop "contributing" here? Makes me wonder what gaping hole you have in your life to continue endeavoring on this hapless and misguided effort to distract yourself from said hole, instead of spending time on more worthwhile pursuits, such as trying to address whatever shortcoming it is that makes you feel compelled to spew venom on a weather forum.

Omega doesn't understand the concept of "right for the wrong reason"....like when he claimed victory all last week about his December call, yet predicted that it would remain mild because the MJO would stall in phase 7, which never happened.

I would take 4" and bolt....just enough to shut off these posts to the effect of "if Boston doesn't see an inch off snow by (insert date), then we should all hang ourselves because it will never snow again".

I wouldn't feed the trolls....if it goes to crap, it goes to crap....let them have their moment in the sun before they stuff shit hand over fist for a month beginning later in January. That said, I still expect a moderate, "get up off of the mat" deal....I wouldn't sweat 18z... If things look like shit in the AM, then maybe time to reassess. First Call tomorrow.

5 PPD too many.

If you look at the comeback el Nino years, none of then had huge events in early January....and we have a big trough out west with a wave attenuating on approach.

This thing never looked like 12"+ to me.

Same here....nothing wrong with 3-6".

What is 3 feet and a few geese between friends?

Ha...I was waiting for this.

Yes.

I am still waiting for the Tippy 30% redux later this week...

This why that guy has no credibility....he never sticks around and shows any accountability for his brutal calls

I know that, but I mean if you are on the wrong end of it, as I usually have been these past 6 years.

Subsidence and confluence are the worst...I'll track and wrestle the rain/snow line any day over that.

Seeing pictures of @Ginx snewx's calvary of doggies buried balls deep in snow

I would rather risk the northern side of the envelop.....nothing I hate more than limp, dry sand while a tri state/CJ orgy rages deep into the night.

Not as Manny emoji binges from @Allsnow

When I say hype, I mean social media...no one in this thread. Nothing but reasonable analysis here.

Big ticket(s) in a few weeks.

Largest negative I see is the attenuating wave on approach....dynamics peak for N NJ and we get moderate residuals. Don't get sucked into any hype...this is a "get off of the mat" event that will otherwise be entirely forgettable.

Models always focus the QPF near the low level deformation, which gets exposed when you have closed mid level centers.....will be high stakes with the confluence to the north. I envision going from a 10" JP to a couple inches of sand over several miles.

Actually, looking again it looks like the GFS...mid levels should be good. Oh well...another run.