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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, seems as though I am going to have to capitaulate at least somewhat to the guidance that has been backing off for the past month.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only reason I am quiet is because I'm balls deep in the Outlook...almost done with the Pacific, then the rest should be an easier task.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we have been saying that for a while now...I'm beginning to have some last second reservations about it TBH...especially with respect to intensity.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...last year was utterly hopeless, but the year before wasn't far off from a decent season where I am.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for that article by the way....I referenced it a couple of times in my work this season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't read back that far, but still no issue.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Accept that it won't snow in November? Done.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know, everything I have looked at indicates that it's more of a concern than a worry.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, which is deceiving beause the western Pacific was so different. Weaker MEI/RONI merely mean that that exatra tropical regions will be more influential, but it doesn't necessarily mean cold.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Caveat being I wouldn't quite place last year's El Nino in that grouping...perhaps 1972, but def. not the rest.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    1984 is the only event that was this meager from an ASO ONI standpoint that went on to sniff moderate (-1.1).
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    While obviously the climate has changed significantly since then, this is clearly the nadir of this cold phase and we should begin to see a recovery in the trend line over the next few years.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I said to @snowman19when he pointed out that 2016-2017 had somewhat of a +PDO, so we may see even less snowfall relative to that year. While that is true, I do not expect the polar domain to be quite so hostile FWIW.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been beating that drum for awhile now....are his posts one sided? Sure, but if that warrants 5 PPD, shit...take a look at my past couple of outlooks and limit me.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    You will love my outlook.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hadn't seen anyone so out of touch to suggest that Bluewave has a cold bias...bravo. Quite literally a first.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Having a 1, 3 and 5 yo to take out tonight, bring it on.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Combo of powerful Pacific cold phase and CC.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It now aligns with where a lot of the seasonals have the warmth centered this winter....in the N plains.....wonder if cold from Canada may be abit more accessible to the NE relative to last year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of like Dec 2007 and 2008...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some similarities with respect to winter in these analog packages.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Canada def. won't be as warm as last season because that "El Nina" configuration was a perfect storm for that, so by default much of the nothern US should be a bit cooler...even NE.
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