40/70 Benchmark

Yes, this is what I am skeptical of....eventually it may happen, but I am just not ready to conclude that we are there like Bluewave seems to be. Maybe, but need more time and data. I wasn't arguing that going above average in the DM mean isn't a fairly safe bet.

December will be mild, but I don't see being like a 2006, 2015 "turn out the lights, game over" type of anomaly....it should be a serviceable month.

I think he's related to raindance.

Its a very good analog.

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

Glorified version of persistence forecasting. It will work until it doesn't.

I don't expect anyone to change their stance at this stage. But the fact is that if this goes on to act like a super canonical el Nini event after a SO MEI of .3, then it will be a first.

Hey, I'll end up about 15mi SE of the bad snow.

This is what has been forecast all along.

No one can definitively conclude that any of these regime changes are, or are not permanent at this time because we simply do not have enough data...period. We can come up with scientifically valid ideologies that make sense, theoretically speaking, but we won't know for years whether they are right of wrong. But the smart money is on them not being permanent, just as all of the theories on "permanent" changes before them. All we know for certain is that the planet is warming. The onus is on folks to prove that these changes are in fact permanent and that will take many more years. The onus is not on others to prove that the changes are not permanent.

Ignorance is bliss, I guess.

CFS almost looks a bit 12/07ish in Janauary...crappy pattern, but the vortex is really protruding southward.

Nope....I'll board my family on the next space shuttle to a galaxy far, far away because it will be clear that we are all imminently doomed.

You can find a way to connect anything you would like to the variable of choice...this is why we still have seasoned professionals arguing that we are on the verge of a canonical super el Nino event as we approach December. All I know is I predicted that Feb SSW and March pattern month 4 months in advance using the March 2001 analog. There is zero question in my mind that the next time we get a several year stretch of reduced winter time se ridge prominence, you will connect that to CC, as well. Someone will write a study concluding that and you will be there to quote it.

I'm with you on this, but we'll always have the CC zealots kicking the can on permanence until they are eventually right.

Forget March 2018? We all get that the planet is warming, but I am willing to bet that we will enter into another more favorable multi-decadal stretch at some point....I'm sure the troughs won't be quite as deep and the departures won't be as extreme, but it will snow again.

I have noticed a couple of notable threats trend seaward, as well....this past weekend and another prominent one a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks, brother....appreciate your help with the volcanic implications on the polar domain. I know I synthesized the data/conceptualizations and composed the narrative, but it truly is a group effort. I have learned so much from this place...and pulled so many graphics. lol

Especially knowing how potent the PV is right now...some SE ridge flexes should not be a shock.

Well, TBH, its just not practical to sit down and go through something like that word for word...I notice that reading it back to myself. I get like halfway through and I just want to surgically remove my eyeballs, but I think there is plenty of value to be had for those beave souls that do. Hopefully @CoastalWxand @ORH_wxmanget a chance to...maybe after Tday dinner before (or during) passing out.

For those that have tired of November, there is a place for you:

I am optimistic for a White Christmas over the interior...in and up. However, certainly a possibility to the coast.

Some of the latest guidance:

Looks like some cold to start before a flip to mild for a couple of weeks, followed by a colder and stormier look towards the holidays. This excerpt is from last week's write up, but nothing has really changed. Intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year. This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December. December Forecast H5 Composite: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall. And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite. December 2023 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010: The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England. 1991-2020: While the month should finish mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events. December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a mult-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm.

I mentioned in my write up that I like the holidays for decent storm potential per analogs.