40/70 Benchmark

Not to mention that west coast trough won't be to Baja.

Snowman must have missed this Webber tweet.

I am more interested in how he responds once it becomes clear that he is wrong. You find out who the real forecasters are when they miss one.

I just do it to gather info..especially when doing my Outlooks...but I seldom engage

1.82" total rainfall.

Another one of my favorite analogs also featured a PV disruption around that time frame, 1986-1987..different Pacific look, though....1986-1987 has the same issue that I told you 1957-1958 had, though it is a better polar analog IMO. Primary Polar Analogs: 1965-1966, 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2004-2005

Makes sense to me: The Sun and Stratosphere Collaboratively Modulate the Polar Domain Research conducted by Gray et al expanded on the notion that Easterly QBO seasons are more prone to polar vortex disruptions by postulating that the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) maybe dictated by interactions between the solar cycle and the QBO in the upper stratosphere, where increased sensitivity and solar cycle amplitude compensate for decreased QBO amplitude. "Solar and QBO signals in the upper equatorial stratosphere where the 11 year solar cycle has its maximum amplitude and the QBO has a small but not insignificant amplitude"(Gray et al 2004). The theory goes onto posit that the easterly QBO helps to establish the presence of an Aleutian high, which expedites the SSW process when superimposed over a solar minimum and results in early season SSW. This is confirmed by the research of @griteater, which reveals that 11/13 seasons featured a SSW and 6/11 SSW events in the el Nino/E QBO data set occurred by no later than January. There has been some subtle suggestion by the long range European guidance of a polar vortex (PV) disruption at some point during the month of December. However, while this is the favored outcome, any such occurrence is likely to take place around the holidays or perhaps even after the New Year and may initially be rushed and/or exaggerated by guidance. Conversely, westerly QBO coupled with near solar max, which was the case in the 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 seasons, delays SSWs until late in the season if one takes place at at all, which is less likely. The el Nino + QBO data set yielded 5/7 SSWs taking place in January or later and occurred at all in only 6/13 seasons. In years such as 2023, when the signals diverge (nearing solar max/E QBO), the research indicates that there is no significant impact on timing. However, the easterly QBO in conjunction with an ascending, but not yet solar max may still slightly favor a more disturbed PV during the early to middle portion of this season. DJF Disturbed PV During E QBO (Courtesy of Flis) This is especially the case when considering the best potential QBO analogs this season. Analyzing the QBO data at both the 30mb and 50m level, the winter seasons of 1986-1987 and 2009-2010 stand out at as strikingly similar at both levels and each were also el Nino seasons with easterly QBO during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, as is the case in 2023. Oct-86 Oct-09 Oct-23 30MB QBO -9.60 -11.69 -16.98 50MB QBO 0.43 3.69 1.60 The season of 1986-1987 is of course one of the discussed basin-wide analogs and featured a major PV disruption during the month of January (Note the similarity to the DJF E QBO PV composite above) following a relatively benign month of December.

1957 and 1965 were the two best ENSO analogs...they were quite the focus in my work.

Jan 2003

If that verifies, you can probably cancel the canonical el Nino claims.

Quote yourself and reply with a

I'll bet we end up with like normal snowfall across the area during December.

I consider 1972 as strong because I factor in MEI, as well...so if its at all close via ONI I used that to decide.

I've updated to incorporate 1979-1980 into the weak intensity and Modoki composite graphics.

Of course it did....about 5 mi to my NW....I joking said to someone that I would be just SE of the "bad" snow

One of the many reasons that I love high water content snowfall.

I don't think this season will be quite as blocky and that season also had a strongly +PDO, but its a great ENSO analog....personally, I like 1965 better as a general analog.

Glad you had some snow to lift the spirits.

Just an unreal 5+ year stretch of brutal luck here....not a flake. The east wind cooked this area, so glad I ignored it. Always either too far north, east or south. The regional impact is something that I probably would have blogged about during the winter, but I wasn't firing up early for that crap lol

The west Pacific warm pool is the result of Chris urinating in the collective cheerios of winter weenies for about the past decade lol

December is going to feature a positive NAO in the mean....just accept that....especially if we see a substantial warming of the polar stratosphere and accompanying weakening of the PV, as the circumstances that trigger that often produce a warmer outcome and unfavorable patterns for winter enthusiasts in the short term. The desired impact is delayed often up to about 30 days while the stratospheric warming ideally propagates downward to the troposphere where it directly alters our weather.

Chris is a bright guy, but don't let him catch you smiling, or else he will point out a multi decadal trend away from whatever made you smile.

I get the risk with the PDO....I was just explaining what a traditional Modoki configuration looks like.

Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration

Watch how whomever is ultimately wrong reacts...any equivocation or moving of the goals posts should be followed by a credibility drain.