40/70 Benchmark

It reminded me a lot of the a toned down version of my March 2018 bonanza....I remember concerns about the best going south were also assuaged early on by the fact that the cape was raining and even here began as a bit of rain...it sounds ironic, but it made me think...."game on" and 31" later the rest was history.

Well, stand by....lol

That sounds right.

EPS looks like goes between the BM and ACK... Funny, it sounds dumb, but I had a really good feeling when I started getting that OES CJ during the day on Saturday...that is pretty rare here and I feel like it portended where the atmosphere wanted to snow.

Hopefully we can get a region wide stomp here soon enough.

I'm still chuckling over this

I don't care to study the charts for day 10, but looks like its trying to give my area some CF love again, looking at the sucker hole inland a bit...

I expected to get some retribution on you this month....if you recall, I have been invoking January 1987 and 2003 snowfall distribution patterns for this January dating back to last fall.

What, you mean I-95 voodoo dolls aren't a thing in Albuquerque?

Are you serious? 1.5" and 13-16" gradient over 4 miles??

You can't win with him if you live on the east coast.....first I get accused of copying his work, now I'm scoffed at because I "don't forecast anything and its the same every year"....well, then what does that say about his work if I am apparently plagiarizing his stuff? And how can I be copying him if I am apparently biased towards east coast snow and cold?? You compliment his efforts and it goes ignored....he's just a confrontation seeking missile. Its truly a bizarre, dysfunctional and maladaptive pattern of behavior.

You had the buzzard's luck last weekend that had plagued me for several years.

Coastal areas should join in more the second half of the month and most especially February. I won't be surprised if this next one is another interior focus, but shouldn't be a wash out on the coast like last weekend.

Yea, don't need a great track to get buried in that one....just for jackpot. And before anyone asks, yes....I am satisfied after that last one. If I get another one great, but I would like to get you coastal guys on the board.

I do slightly better than you do per EURO NARCAN.

Close enough to my identified timeframe from early November. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5 Seems to have some large scale tele support.

Yea, took one look at the low position and threw up a bit. Still nets me around a foot, though. We should have antecedent cold for once.

Active January Pattern to Continue Degree of Winter Weather Impact to be Determined. The next in a line of significant storm systems to impact southern New England this month is on tap for Wednesday, however, it looks to be primarily a rain and wind threat with the system tracking through the great lakes. The primary considerations for this system will be high wind and heavy rains, which will combine with snow melt from the this past weekend's storm to potentially cause some flooding in poor drainage areas. Significant snowfall is possible for northern ski areas given the late transfer to the coast as the system approaches the developing NAO block. The block will continue to become stronger and more entrenched further to the west throughout the duration of the week, such that it will be better positioned to induce a faster coastal transfer with respect to the approaching storm system next weekend. Better Chance for Some Wintry Impact Southern New England Next Weekend Given the modeled strength and positioning of the developing block, there should be some trends toward faster redevelopment of the next system over the weekend. But whether or not it will be enough to result in a significant winter storm for southern New England remains to be seen.

Rain , of course, Wednesday, but room for positive trends with respect to the weekend. I think we will see it trend, but how much (enough)? https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/active-january-pattern-to-continue.html

First of all, some of the past few seasons have shared some similarities that had Boston in the general vicinity of...you guessed it, 50" of snowfall. 2020-2021 38.6 0 2021-2022 54.0 0 People have different learning styles...and learning is kind of a prerequisite for forecasting. I learn by reading and writing, you apparently learn by looking out your window in order to devise myopic, parochial IMBY analogs....which have all yielded pretty similar results, BTW. You do you-

1997-1998 is not a very good analog....the forcing is much further west, in fact so far west that it has enveloped some of the Maritime continent, which is why it has been warm.....this year has been far more similar to years like 2016, 1995, 2007and to a lesser degree 1973 in that regard. As far as the polar domain not guaranteeing anything, I agree....nothing is a lock. But it's important element to have on your side if looking for cold in the mid latitudes. There is some extended guidance getting a segment of the PV in the vicinity of Hudson Bay in the longer range, so we will see what happens. Could winter still suck in the east? Of course, but odds are better that it won't than many of the years that you have mentioned.

And I'm amused that you seem to think I went big winter in the east....I forecasted warm with near normal snowfall.

You seem to ignore the polar domain, which is likely since you largely failed to acknowledge how badly you whiffed on it last season...instead opting for denial in lieu of acceptance of the fact that you were right for the wrong reason. I'm sure that that you'll resort to some line about how the PDO is more important than the NAO, but the fact of the matter is that polar fields are more often than not crucial during El Niño.

GEM blows, too.