40/70 Benchmark

Tough to the pull the rug out if one has the foresight to never step foot on it-

I hated that event. Like 8" of sand.

Yea, I am done looking at long range, at this point....get a nice look within 120 hours and then I will acknowledge.

Yeesh....stay out of the sun, Steve?

Nothing but goalie pads?

You can just frolick nude and free at this point...just lay in the net

Hey, maybe we get another Feb 2006 miracle...it nailed that in the face of a resistant consensus.

Certainly there tends to be an increased interval of confidence at that range.

Think of it in terms of winter....the warm waters are analagous to well placed surface high pressure....doesn't matter if the upper levels are hostile.

Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.

100% correct call and great observation.

Gotcha...my bad. Tough to follow on here sometimes with so many posts and quotes.

We all have alot to learn about weather and will probably be able to say that on our death beds.

Yea, no one expected this warmth....Raindance was closest, but even he was too cool. Bluewave seemed to have the right idea, but he only does 2 week increments, which is probably part of the secret to his sucess. lol

Well, you said you were starting to agree and quote me saying " mainly rain for most in SNE for all of March is a safe bet"

Always looked somewhat above normal, but....that area by the Bering Sea is what guidance missed. That made what was forecast to be servicable February warmth into February cancel.

Its like 2 paragraphs....faster read than walking the dog and shoveling the deuce.

The Eurasian crew is.

No, it was never supposed to be particularly cold, but not as warm as it was. The modeled progression was significantly more favorable.

The call for the storm this weekend worked out fine. the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th. Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston). However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source.

It was modeled as a very wintry month, and it verified as a wintry week.