40/70 Benchmark

Probably going to be a scorcher of a summer.

This is certainly true....I have always said that. I guess temps are less extreme, but the storms certainly are not...which goes along with increased moisture.

This decade has been much warmer than the 1970's.

It moderates our climate in the mean, but there are more extremes. Just about all of the warmest winters have been in the past 15 yeaes, but so haven't most of our worst blizzards.

Its already demonstrated enough anti social tendencies that I would just assume see it get out of the s stream's way.

My best clinical advice is to act on any suicidal ideation.

Its just 2/24 for me and then I am over and out...onto the draft. Kev can track the residual table scraps during Morch.

I do not agree with that. It will get taken care of naturtally....not saying immediately. I could def. see next winter sucking...don't get me wrong.

Will have to see exactly when the peak is....we may sneak in one more winter before the solar wind and electromagnetic energy kicks up. We need to see what the ACE is, too....while a huge ACE doesn't guarantee a great winter, its never lead to a horrific one, either.

This past El Nino was definitely a lot like 1972-1973....we had more blocking, but it didn't matter because all of the cold was on the other side of the globe and in AK.

This is my thought on the issue.....nature always finds a way to balance.

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

Looks like it would actually be a Friday into Fridya night deal.

It sucks you got boned 1/7 because I felt that was nice retribution for me....honestly one of the more enjoyable events of my life given that: 1) It over performed 2) I jack potted with 19" 3) First several inches were paste 4)I even had some OES and CF CJ for good measure...it was just an orgy of all of my fetishes wrapped into a neat bow.

If by some miricale things look good for 2/24 by next Friday (2/23), we should meet up and weenie out to send the season out with a hurrah.

It was clear on I 93...once I hit I 495, the snow cover is gone.

I'd go back to 2/6/78.

I think you would be suprised how many would be ready to embrace that-

I'm just waiting to see how 2/24 will fail.

It's been a rusty coat hanger.

I think CC is going to do to tropical activity what it is doing to snowfall...more feast or famine. We are seeing more lean snowfall seasons because temps are wamer, but we are also seeing more huge storms because there is more moisture. With respect to hurricanes, I believe a byproduct of the warmer PAC will be more wind shear down wind over the Atlantic basin, however, we will also be more prone to intense systems and uber active seasons when it is favorable.

What he says makes sense in theory and I respect the fact that he is open to something altering the regime. He is not at all a troll. Very bright and grounded guy. Having said all of that, I remain of the opinion that Mother Nature will find a way to balance the scale, so to speak, at some point.

So sorry, Brett.

Glad you posted that....my 1.5" measurement was an anomaly relative to surrounding areas, and this validates my ob, as I am right in that narrow corridor. That is exactly what it is...the narrow corridor between the dry air and the maritime influence that saw some accumulation.

Thoughts on "The Great Forecasting Debacle of 2024" Why The Forecast Failed The good news is that yesterday's storm was indeed short duration, as forecast, since it never even materialized for a significant portion of the region. And the most heavily populated portion at that, so needless to say it did not have the "high impact" that was forecast. However, it did for a portion of the region to the south, as illustrated below. But obviously this is in sharp contrast to the forecast, which called for a high impact over most of the region. The forecast largely verified over the southern half of the area, as the max amount of 15.5" was reported in Farmington, CT. But clearly the entire system evolved approximately 50 miles to the south of the forecast track, as evidenced by the very light amounts to the north. And its much easier to see why that was the case in hindsight than it was to forecast it. Northern Stream Kept Southern Stream at Bay The forecast for a major storm system across the area was predicated one the notion that the northern stream would begin to interact with the southern stream system just as it traversed the area. But the reality was that the northern disturbance remained separate until it they both bypassed the region, yet close enough for the northern energy to deflect the southern disturbance, which was responsible for the storm, a bit further to the south. This had two important ramifications that greatly reduced snowfall across the area. 1) The northern steam system remained discrete enough to avoid any phasing until east of the region, which consequently prevented it from gaining the latitude that results from the merging with the northern steam a one subsumes the other. This is why the snowfall shield was displaced about 50 miles to the south of forecast and it was not apparent that this would be the case until Monday afternoon. 2) The weaker precipitation as a result of the storm remaining to the south was the result of more meager atmospheric dynamics, which also meant a decreased ability for snowfall to overcome what was a marginal airmass near the east coast of Mass. This is why the snowfall forecast actually verified over the cape and islands, where the precipitation was as heavy as forecast. However, it meany hardly any snowfall accumulation at all across the Boston metropolitan area instead of the 8-12" and 6-10" range that was forecast. FINAL GRADE: F