40/70 Benchmark

Every First Call is inherently in jeopardy, which is why it isn't a Final Call. Everyone had this a cape storm 2 hours ago, and now my map is tossed for being too far south Repeat after me..."nuance if my friend, not my foe.....breathe well uttering that phrase.

First Call for Significant Sunday-Monday Winter Storm Rain to Snow Transition with Worst Expected Overnight Sunday Synoptical Overview: A disturbance currently entering the Pacific Northwest will careen down toward the base of the residual west coast trough and towards a union with a sub tropical jet impulse moving through Texas during the day on Thursday. A ridge will begin to develop over the Western CONUS over the course of the next 24-48 hours, which will aide in the coalescing of energy from the aforementioned to two systems in the general vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex region by Saturday. This burgeoning west coast ridge will be instrumental in the development of the impending storm system in three ways. 1) As mentioned, it will aide in triggering the union of the two systems to form a relatively formidable wave on approach this weekend. 2) It will allow yet another piece of energy from the northern stream to careen down over the crest of the ridge to interact with the storm and infuse cold air into the region this weekend, thus transitioning rain to snowfall. 3) This infusion of northern stream energy, while adding enough cold to trigger a change over to snowfall across the region, will ironically enough also act to ensure that the storm this weekend continues to move along and does not become a truly high-end winter event. There remains some question of whether the interaction with the trailing northern stream energy supplying the cold, coupled with impacts from the confluence in the wake of the vortex near the southern Greenland will force this system out to sea to the south of the region. However, the current forecast philosophy is that the southern stream origins of this storm coupled with the significant phase change from negative to positive PNA in response to the building west coast ridge will allow this system to gain sufficient latitude as to impact the region in a significant manner. But any necessary changes to said philosophy will be addressed on Saturday with the issuance of the Final Call. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light rain will begin to overspread the region on Monday afternoon, and. may be mixed with sleet and snow in the Berkshires from the outset. Rain will then begin to mix with sleet and snow across interior southern New England Sunday evening. And intensify overnight on Sunday and especially during the predawn hours of Monday, as deep layer Easterly flow transports moisture in from the ocean and produces some enhancement across the east facing slopes of the Worcester hills, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island. The heavier fall rate of precipitation will expedite the transition of rainfall to snow to the coast by the Monday AM commute, as colder air continues to infiltrate the region. Expect delays and cancellations on Monday morning, as this will be the peak of the storm. Any residual rain or mixed precipitation near the coast, cape and islands changes to snow by midday on Monday before precipitation begins to taper off from west to east during the afternoon. And ends everywhere by Monday night. FIRST CALL:

First Call.....will update Saturday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-significant-sunday.html

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I said if the NAM was right... Not my forecast.

K, my first map is all set....just gonna rip out the narrative and take my pants off before publishing.

I would wager to say he is well ahead of most of us realtive to climo over the past 8 years or so.....I can crunch the numbers later if he would like to supply them.

"I had a lucky 2 hours at the end of my date last weekend...other than that, I fit right in with the rest of the weather weenie virgins".......

End of my interest in Sunday if that is right.

A suboptimal 105" instead of an optimal 120" in 2015

...says the one dude who has yet to regress Hopefully that bad has been about paid...

TBH, I will take that considering how I expect this to trend heading into the weekend.

SOP has endured a wisdom tooth extraction.

Yea, same page....I find it hard to believe that much mass flux results in so little consequence in terms of clyclogen.

You still may end up glad this faded for a stretch.....lets see what happens.

I know.....maybe a SOP/CJ deal, anyway.....just hopefully a few inches up here with the kids all coming back tomorrow...would be nice to get them out while daddy breaks his ass shoveling.

This run looks a bit slower, too...

Wondering if se see a late push north, but maybe I'm wrong on that...should be an interesting weekend. I at least hope it works out for you guys down there that have been porked.

Yea, sure.....I can see that. Understand that when I do things at a seasonal level in early November, I am always speaking in the aggregate.....exceedingly difficult to foresee a mild interlude for a few days.

No argument from me on that. My analogs were strongly in favor of a spring like March, early month winter overlap not withstanding.

"It looks like the Blizzard of '78 except 2 feet and 2 days less "

Toss

34.0

Track this between the Benchmark and ACK and I'll change my screen name to ChangeofDrawersWX