If we had a big NAO block in place, then the 16th could be very formiddable. Shit like this is why the NAO is important....its not the governing force that some make it out to be, but its something you def want on your side.
I haven't waivered on my long run stance....the MJO is going to flat line and ultimately emerge from the COD into the MC IMHO....so we have to make hay Tuesday through last week of Feb. That is our window. I do not buy this 6 week orgie that some have been floating around.
DT is just recently coming around to this....
Given the N stream's reluctance to completely join the fray, its commital to abandon ship altogether has ascended this from a marginal, amorphous bag of unrealized potential to a relatively short duration, high impact ordeal.
Maybe I will go down with the ship, but I expect this to come back north. Not a wish cast...those that know me understand I am not shy about predicting a porking.