40/70 Benchmark

While @qg_omegaclaims victory over a call for a nation wide torch because Boston didn't snow.

Yea, and George could pursue his met degree and be the next Harvey Leonard....I'll bet against it. Yet another epiosode of the atmosphere's premier presentation "One Million and One Ways to Not Snow Prolifically in SNE".

I don't see anyway anything interesting at all makes it up here......but I'm sure twitter dolts will rub one out to the colors and anomalies.

I am banking on the lift getting here.

Work...but I am not lol

The latter....just extrapolating how I expect that to play out.

We'll see. If I'm wrong, then I'll try to understand why and move on.

I can also recall times when I took them as gospel and they were too light. You keep a better personal inventory of this shit when you actually forecast...no offense intended at all...I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all.

Part of the discrepancy is them breaking the ranges down into lower denominations than I do....like I expect my area to be more like 4" than 7", so agree there. Big difference is around Kev and Geroge's areas.

I was conflicted.....the NARCAN maps are are so paltry....part of me wishes I had incorporated them and positive snow depth change more, but sometimes NARCAN is too conservative. But this is the type of marginal situation where they may just sniff the terd out.

I can recall plenty of times that I have taken them to the shed, though.

Of course.

I have said I am not confident in that map.....so the communication of doubt really isn't warranted. I understand that Mother Nature has and continues to touch you where she shouldn't, but that isn't my fault, so don't project that onto me.

Even the European positive depth change map has you at 2". Maybe I should have added another range and not have 4-7" encompass such a large area, but forecasters give ranges for 2 reasons. Not only to convey potential of reaching a certain number at a given location, but also for the purpose of encompassing a large area in which different locales will fall into said range. Common sense dictates that if you are on the se edge of a large area of 4-7", then the map probably implying that you will be closer to 4" than 7".

Why don't you go make a map and leave me alone.

The 4-7" raps around from the CT RV, through the hills of N CT and RI and into interior MA....you tell me who you think has a the best shot at the upper end of that range?

You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

It's a very tough call...real PITA storm. I am banking on that area stealing a couple to a few inches based on the slight elevation and being far enough south to get the good lift. Will I be surprised if they get next to nothing? No.

Those charts blow.

I could see the hills begin as snow that struggles to stick at first...those simulated RAD images are smoothed.

Final Call for Sunday-Monday Low to Moderate Impact Winter Storm Rain to Snow Transition with Worst Expected Overnight Sunday Into Early Monday Synoptical Overview: A ridge is currently in the process of taking shape over the Western CONUS. This ridge is serving to aid in the coalescence of energy from two systems in the general vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex region. This burgeoning west coast ridge will be instrumental in the development of the impending storm system in three ways. 1) As mentioned, it will aide in triggering the union of the two systems to form a relatively formidable wave on approach this weekend. 2) It will allow yet another piece of energy from the northern stream to careen down over the crest of the ridge to interact with the storm and infuse cold air into the region this weekend, thus transitioning rain to snowfall. 3) This infusion of northern stream energy, while adding enough cold to trigger a change over to snowfall across the region, will ironically interact with the storm just enough to ensure that it continues to move along and does not become a truly high-end winter event. At the same time, confluence to the south of the vary large vortex in the general vicinity of Greenland will be adding resistance to the progression of the precipitation once north of the Mass turnpike and especially the Vermont and New Hampshire borders. This makes the snowfall forecast rather precarious because not only will the degree of cold infusing in from the north be marginal to allow for a significant snowfall, but so will the amount of lift making it far enough north as a result of the confluence. But be that as it may, the current forecast philosophy is that the southern stream origins of this storm coupled with the significant phase change from negative to positive PNA in response to the building west coast ridge will allow this system to gain sufficient latitude as to impact the region in a significant manner. And this means that the most favored areas for a significant amounts of snowfall will be the central, elevated areas of the Worcester hills and the Berkshires. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light rain will begin to overspread the region Sunday morning, and may be mixed with sleet and snow in the Berkshires from the outset. Rain will then begin to mix with sleet and snow across interior southern New England Sunday afternoon. And intensify overnight on Sunday and especially during the predawn hours of Monday, as modest deep layer East-northeasterly flow transports moisture in from the ocean and triggers some slight topographical enhancement across the east facing slopes of the Worcester hills, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island. As alluded to previously, the highest confidence areas for significant amounts of snowfall will be the central, elevated areas of the Worcester hills and the Berkshires. This is because these areas are elevated and far enough north that the column should eventually cool sufficiently, albeit by a narrow margin. And these locales are also far enough south that sufficient lift to overcome marginal boundary layer is highly likely, especially considering that there should also be a slight upslope component. The heavier fall rate of precipitation during this period will expedite the transition of rainfall to snow to the coast during the pre-dawn hours or early Monday morning. Thus the Monday AM commute should be a slippery one, as colder air continues to infiltrate the region. Expect delays and cancellations on Monday morning, as this will be the peak of the storm across eastern areas. Any residual rain or mixed precipitation near the coast, cape and islands changes to snow by midday on Monday before precipitation begins to taper off from west to east during the afternoon. And ends everywhere during the day on Monday, well in advance of the evening commute. FINAL CALL: First Call Issued Thursday January 25 @ 11AM:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

Hope you do well there, man....been boned so far.

Sell that.

I thought the WAA was more impressive in Jan 7th deal...it was immense. One of the more impressive WAA displays I have witnessed.